Operation of listed companies from January to February: according to incomplete statistics, a total of 15 listed companies in CITIC petrochemical and basic chemical sector released the operation data from January to February 2022 this week. Benefiting from strong product demand, price increase, release of new production capacity and other reasons, the above-mentioned 15 listed companies in the chemical sector achieved significant performance growth from January to February 2022. Among them, the revenue growth rate of each listed company from January to February was between 30% and 346% year-on-year, and the revenue growth rate of Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) and other five companies was 100% or above; The year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies was 35% ~ 559%. The year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies of Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) and other five companies was more than 300%, and the net profit attributable to parent companies of most companies doubled. Although there have been great fluctuations in the A-share market recently, the fundamentals of high-quality chemical enterprises are still good, benefiting from downstream demand, capacity release, price rise and other factors, which continue to develop well, and then achieve better than expected performance.
Vitamin E: in 2021, we issued several reports emphasizing that looking forward to the next 2-3 years, the merger of DSM and nente technology will significantly improve the competition pattern of the industry, and VE is expected to usher in a super boom cycle again. There is still much room for rise in the current price level. Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and Europe and the United States have successively announced sanctions plans against Russia, further aggravating the tension of natural gas supply in Europe. Natural gas is the key raw material for the synthesis of acetylene (the upstream raw material of VE). The shortage of natural gas in Europe has further exacerbated the shortage of vitamin supply in Europe. According to Bloomberg news, affected by the interruption of supply of key intermediates, DSM’s q1ve production is expected to decline by more than 30% in 22 years, and will affect q2ve production. Affected by the decline of VE output of DSM, the supply of VE market is tight, and the impact of low inventory of downstream enterprises is superimposed. Recently, ve manufacturers have increased their quotations, and the ve business cycle has come.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, all sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a downward trend. This week, the Shanghai stock index fell by 4.00%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4.40%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 4.22%, and the gem index fell by 3.03%. CITIC basic chemical industry fell by 3.3%, ranking seventh in all sectors. In the past five trading days, most of the sub sectors of the chemical industry showed a downward trend. The top five sub sectors were phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemical (+ 2.4%), polyester (+ 0.6%), spandex (+ 0.0%), electronic chemicals (- 0.3%) and lithium chemicals (- 0.4%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: in the past five trading days, the top gainers in the basic chemical sector are: Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) (+ 60.96%), Zhejiang Dayang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(003017) (+ 29.63%), Elion Clean Energy Company Limited(600277) (+ 20.66%), St Rongtai (+ 15.52%), Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) (+ 14.25%). In the past five trading days, the stocks with the largest decline in basic chemical industry include: andisu (- 17.96%), aofu environmental protection (- 17.03%), Sanxiang new material (- 16.75%), Guizhou Redstar Developing Co.Ltd(600367) (- 15.69%), and Shanghai Yongguan Adhesive Products Corp.Ltd(603681) (- 15.05%).
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) Plate: sector sector of new material sector: suggestions and concerns: sector sector sector: sector sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: the following concerns: ① semiconductor materials: the Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
