Summary of this issue:
Zhou viewpoint: 1) home furnishing: Recently, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) successively released plans to increase the shareholding of dealers and executives, demonstrating the company’s confidence in development. The valuation of most companies in the home furnishing sector has been corrected, and they continue to be optimistic about the long-term comprehensive competitiveness of leading enterprises in the whole category and multi-channel. It is suggested to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (22-year PE 23x), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (22-year PE 19x), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (22-year PE 12x), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (22-year PE 13X) and Minhua Holdings (22-year PE 11x). 2) Papermaking: cultural paper & specialty paper have successively issued price increase letters. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (22-year PE 9x) and Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) (22-year PE 10x). With the slight improvement of China’s demand and the increase of overseas export orders, the prices of culture and white cardboard have rebounded recently. This week, both Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) , Xiawang Paper Co., Ltd. issued a price increase letter in March, and the price of decorative base paper increased by 1500 yuan / ton. 3) Packaging and printing & new tobacco: this week, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the national standard for e-cigarettes (second draft for comments) and the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes. According to the taste design requirements, the characteristic flavor of the product should not show other flavors except tobacco. It is expected that it will have a certain impact on the demand for e-cigarettes in China in the short term. However, in the long run, we believe that there is still much room to improve the penetration rate of China’s new-type tobacco. We continue to be optimistic about the leading industrial chain layout of leading enterprises. We suggest paying attention to Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (22-year PE 17x). It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) (pe15x in 22 years) in the paper packaging sector. 4) Household personal consumption: Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) this week’s performance express slightly exceeded expectations, Q4 profit growth picked up month on month, continued to be optimistic about the firm’s traditional core business channel barriers, the gradual maturity of new business models, and the gradual improvement of profitability in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) (22-year PE 26x) and Jialian technology with improved performance month on month.
The light industry manufacturing sector performed slightly worse than the market this week (2022.3.7-3.11). This week, the light industry manufacturing industry index fell 4.6%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.2%. The overall performance was inferior to the market. In the light industry manufacturing segment, the paper industry index was – 3.6%, the entertainment industry index was – 3.6%, the packaging and printing industry index was – 3.8%, and the household goods industry index was – 6.0%.
Household: the price of raw materials rose slightly this week, and the high sea freight fell slightly. In the past week as of March 11, 2022, the price of particleboard at 18% and 15% was + 7.2% and + 1.6% respectively month on month. In terms of chemical raw materials, the market prices of TDI, MDI and polyether were + 2.4%, – 1.4% and + 6.5% respectively last week. In terms of hardware raw materials, copper prices were + 1.8% month on month (MOM) last week. The high level of sea freight dropped slightly. This week, CCFI: the sea freight of the US west route was – 0.4% higher than that of last week.
Papermaking: the price of paper is stable this week, and the price of waste paper rises slightly. The past week as of March 12, 2022: the price of double adhesive tape, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6800 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6700 yuan / ton (unchanged); Price of white cardboard, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6410 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) 6520 yuan / ton (unchanged); Coated paper price, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) 6600 yuan / ton (unchanged), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) 6500 yuan / ton (unchanged). Dongguan Jiulong Dilong Dongguan Jiulong corrugated paper 4490 yuan / ton (unchanged), kraft carton board 4730 yuan / ton (decreased by 100 yuan / ton). In terms of cost, as of March 12, 2022, the purchase price of Tianjin Jiulong waste yellow paperboard was 2190 yuan / ton (up 50 yuan / ton), the price of Brazilian goldfish broad-leaved pulp was 680 US dollars / ton (unchanged), the price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp was 890 US dollars / ton (unchanged), and the pulp futures price was 7222 yuan / ton, 4.92% month on week.
Packaging: the price of tinsector increased slightly and the price of aluminum decreased slightly. As of March 11, 2022, this week’s tinsector Tianjin Furen spcc0 The price of 18 900 tinsector coil is 8410 yuan / ton (up 420 yuan / ton), and the price of A00 aluminum is 22400 yuan / ton (down 626 yuan / ton), which decreases slightly.
Risk factors: the risk of decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material costs.
