Zhou's view: Social Finance in February was lower than expected, the delisting risk of zhonggai shares increased, and the property insurance data in February exceeded expectations
The social finance data in February was lower than the market expectation. The market expected that the steady growth policy should be strengthened, and attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the internal and external environment. At present, we continue to recommend Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , which benefits from broad credit, obvious characteristics of value stocks and has long logic. The property insurance data in February exceeded expectations and benefited the subject China property insurance; When the stock market stabilizes, we are still optimistic about the beta opportunity of the great wealth management track of securities dealers, and pay attention to the benefits of the follow-up comprehensive registration system and personal pension policy.
Securities companies: the three-party platform continues the net subscription, the delisting risk of zhonggai shares increases, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) may benefit
(1) this week, the newly established equity + mixed fund was 11 billion, with a chain ratio of - 30%, still at a low level; On March 9, China Fund News reported that ant wealth and Tiantian fund platform equity products showed net subscription, and ant wealth platform equity funds had a net inflow of 28.7 billion / 42.7 billion respectively in the past month / since 2022; The equity funds of Tiantian fund have bought 1.5 billion, 7 billion and 20 billion respectively in the past week / month / since 2022. (2) From March 10 to 11, the collective decline of concept stocks in the United States and China was mainly affected by the inclusion of five Chinese ADRs in the "temporary delisting list" by the US SEC on March 8. According to the foreign company Accountability Act, if PCAOB fails to review the issuer's accounting firm for three consecutive years from the 2021 annual report, the stock will be prohibited from trading on the national exchange. In the United States and China, the delisting risk of concept shares increases, the demand for listing in Hong Kong increases, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) may benefit. (3) At present, we are not pessimistic about the brokerage sector. We believe that the long-term logic of wealth management still exists. In the short term, the profit growth rate of big wealth management with high contribution of public offering profits in the sector and head brokerage with outstanding comprehensive advantages will be better than the industry average; At the same time, the valuation of the core target fell significantly, and the valuation and profit matched well. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares).
Insurance: the P & C data in February exceeded expectations, which was good for China's P & C insurance, and AIA launched a US $10 billion repurchase plan
(1) five listed insurance companies disclosed the data in February, and the property insurance data exceeded expectations. The premium of PICC Property Insurance from January to February was + 13.6% year-on-year and + 13.4% year-on-year in February; CPIC P & C + 15.7% year-on-year from January to February and + 22.5% year-on-year in February. The year-on-year growth of auto insurance and Italian health insurance is expected to exceed expectations. The cumulative year-on-year growth of PICC P & C auto insurance is + 14.6% and + 14.9% year-on-year in February. The impact of the increase of average vehicle premium is expected to continue. In terms of life insurance, the total premiums in February were PICC + 8.7%, Xinhua + 11.1%, CPIC + 14.9% and Guoshou - 3.1%. The premiums of most insurance companies maintained year-on-year growth. It is expected that driven by the system model products and bancassurance channels, NBV is still under great pressure in the first quarter of 2022. (2) AIA disclosed the full year performance in 2021. NBV was + 15% (fixed exchange rate) and + 19% (real exchange rate) year on year, mainly driven by China (+ 14%), Thailand (+ 30%) and Malaysia (+ 27%). At the same time, the company issued a US $10 billion share repurchase plan. The uncertainty of the epidemic situation and the slowdown in the expansion of mainland branches may bring some challenges to the growth rate of NBV in 2022. (3) At present, there is no sign of improvement in the liability side of insurance. The growth of property insurance is higher than expected, and China's property insurance benefits; Life insurance opportunities are mainly expected to improve on the asset side. We recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has a large space for asset side repair, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is leading in transformation, and China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Combination of beneficial objects
Finance: ;
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
