One week’s view: covid-19 virus prevention and control situation has changed, and antigen detection will become a supplementary means
In March 11, 2022, the State Council, in response to the comprehensive unit of the joint prevention and control mechanism of New Coronavirus pneumonia, decided to add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection, and announced the “COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan (Trial Implementation)” plan. Since February this year, covid-19 epidemic has been concentrated in many regions of China, with more new cases, making it more difficult to prevent and control the epidemic in cities. Centralized large-scale nucleic acid screening consumes a large amount of medical resources. Hospitals in some areas as core covid-19 nucleic acid testing institutions are also involved in the epidemic, and the carrying capacity of nucleic acid molecular diagnosis is seriously insufficient. Because of its fast and convenient advantages, antigen detection can speed up the large-scale screening of residents in sealed and controlled areas, reduce the cost of government epidemic prevention and control, and shorten the isolation time of relevant epidemic areas. Therefore, antigen detection has potential blue ocean space in China. Although the mainstream means and gold standard of covid-19 detection will still be nucleic acid detection, it is undeniable that antigen detection is of great significance as a supplement to nucleic acid detection.
One week’s view: the antigen detection method will be gradually implemented, and the relevant kits and upstream and downstream industrial chains will directly benefit. At present, China has approved five covid-19 antigen rapid detection POC professional kit products, which need to be operated by professionals. At present, the products of home self-test version that can be purchased through pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels have not been approved. The introduction of the new policy is expected to accelerate the approval speed of home version. The approved manufacturers are expected to obtain the first mover advantage and take the lead in obtaining large-scale revenue. In addition, on the upstream raw material side: (1) master the upstream and downstream technologies of biological reagents and actively extend to the downstream end products of biological reagents. With a complete range of products, companies engaged in intensive cultivation of recombinant proteins, antibodies and other subdivided fields will directly benefit. (2) The demand of high polymer consumables manufacturers producing antigen detection sampling tubes, especially those relying on the advantages of high polymer consumables production line technology and mold development, will promote the further release of production capacity. In the retail terminal of antigen detection kit, the leading drugstore companies with the characteristics of wide distribution of stores are expected to bring greater profit space due to their scale effect.
One week’s view: Pfizer covid-19 small molecule drug MPP authorization list is expected to accelerate the implementation, and firmly optimistic about covid-19 drug industry chain. In January, MSD authorized 27 enterprises to produce covid-19 oral drug molnupiravir through MPP (Geneva drug patent pool organization), Authorized enterprises can sell molnupiravir generic drugs in 105 low – and middle-income countries (excluding China). Pfizer has authorized 95 countries to produce paxlovid generic drugs through MPP organization. Considering that the population of 95 MPP member countries has exceeded half of the total global population and the market demand is large, its final authorization list is expected to accelerate the implementation. Considering the good treatment effect of paxlovid, it is expected that after the paxlovid authorization list is implemented, the Relevant generic pharmaceutical enterprises and upstream industrial chain are expected to meet great demand. China has a mature basic chemical system and the layout of the whole pharmaceutical manufacturing industry chain, with lower upstream raw material costs and more stable and sustainable supply capacity. We are firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities and long-term development of covid-19 pharmaceutical industry chain.
Recommended and beneficial objects
Recommended targets: Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) (the above ranking is not in order). The subject of the beneficiary object is: Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) \ , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , 3 Zyf Lopsking Aluminum Co.Ltd(002333) 00584。
Risk tip: the black swan incident and the deterioration of the epidemic situation in the industry affect production and operation.
