Key investment points: the social finance data in February was less than expected, and the probability of the central bank’s recent adjustment of policy interest rate increased; AIA achieved steady growth in performance in 2021, increased dividends and launched a US $10 billion equity repurchase plan to improve shareholder returns.
The social finance data in February was less than expected, and the probability of the central bank’s recent adjustment of policy interest rates increased. 1) On March 11, the central bank disclosed financial data. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan, lower than market expectations. According to the data of the central bank, the probability that the interest rate of the western sector can not be adjusted further in February means that the interest rate can not be adjusted according to the expectation of the central bank. According to the data of the financial policy, the interest rate can not be adjusted further in February. At the current time point, we believe that the brokerage sector has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations such as market fluctuations and the temporary cold in the issuance of public funds. In the follow-up, under the catalysis of favorable policies such as the acceleration of the comprehensive registration system, the valuation of the sector is expected to be repaired. 2) Affected by market fluctuations, the new derivatives business outside the securities market decreased month on month in January. In January, the nominal principal of derivatives outside the securities market increased by 612449 billion yuan, qoq-22.6% / yoy-3.5%; 17753 new transactions, qoq-11.6% / yoy + 18.9%. In the recent process of market adjustment, investors are worried about the centralized knocking in of snowball structured products. From the perspective of head securities companies, market adjustment will indeed affect the scale growth of OTC derivatives, but it is not enough to trigger systemic risks, which is mainly due to its own perfect risk control system. From the perspective of investors, since the middle of last year, the regulator has frequently issued documents to strengthen the risk control of snowball products, especially to further improve the detailed rules on the appropriateness management of investors.
AIA released its annual performance in 2021. 1) strong growth in core indicators: NBV (fixed exchange rate caliber, the same below) yoy + 18% to US $3.366 billion in 2021; Annualized new premium (ANP) yoy + 6% to US $5.647 billion; Nbvmyoy + 6.3pcts to 59.3%; Opatyoy + 6% to US $6.409 billion, with embedded value of yoyy + 13% to US $72.987 billion. 2) The positive cycle effect of the high-quality agent strategy “high quality, high production capacity and high income” appears: in 2021, the agent channel NBV yoy + 20% to US $2.877 billion, the per capita ANP yoy + 10% and the number of MDRT members yoy + 25%. 3) Diversified layout, explore new opportunities for development: strengthen the layout of Bancassurance channels, expand the scope of medical and health services through acquisition and joint venture, and empower the main business of insurance. 4) Increase dividends + launch us $10 billion equity repurchase plan to improve shareholder returns: dividends yoy + 8% to HK $1.46/share in 2021; The board of directors approved a US $10 billion three-year open market share repurchase plan, which is funded by the group’s available capital and cash reserves. We believe that the group has arranged the Pan Asian market with rapid growth of high net worth people, relying on the strategy of high-quality agent team + high net worth customer group + focusing on value products, superimposing the health ecosystem to form a unique moat. In the short term, it is expected that the repeated epidemic will still restrict business development. The company’s online layout and strategy of focusing on high net worth customers are expected to help it outperform its peers. With the gradual stabilization of the epidemic situation in the future, it is expected that the mainland visitor business is expected to recover gradually after Hong Kong’s customs clearance; The expansion of mainland territory will drive business growth; Business in Southeast Asia continued to recover. Prudent actuarial assumptions and high matching of asset liability duration resist the risk of interest rate fluctuation, sufficient capital helps explore new opportunities for development, the share repurchase plan enhances market confidence, and high-quality fundamentals are expected to support the valuation.
Investment suggestions: recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China stock market news, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601 , and pay attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Property Insurance and AIA.
Risk tips: market fluctuation risk, credit risk and policy risk.
