Industrial metals: the supply disturbance continues, and the downstream demand gradually recovers
Aluminum: the disturbance of overseas supply increased, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum remained high
With the further fermentation of overseas energy crisis, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continues to rise, and the scale of production reduction may be further expanded (according to SMM data, the cumulative production reduction has been close to 900000 tons). In China, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum reached 1142000 tons this week, with an increase of 22000 tons on a weekly basis, and the overall accumulation rate began to slow down. In the future, with the continuous recovery of the operating rate of downstream enterprises, the profit level of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain high, mainly benefiting Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , etc.
Copper: the supply and demand is still loose, and the demand is expected to improve marginally under the expectation of “steady growth”
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased this week, and the emotional support for metal prices weakened. From the perspective of fundamentals, the US CPI data hit a new high in recent years, and the pressure of high inflation is still rising. On the supply side, the import of raw materials from January to February exceeded that of previous years, and the output of refined copper slightly exceeded expectations. The start-up at the downstream of the demand side has picked up, and the terminal demand has gradually begun to improve, but it is still weak compared with the past. On the whole, the US CPI and employment data may raise interest rates more than expected, and the overall supply and demand is still loose. However, with the peak consumption season and the expectation of “steady growth” policy, the demand side is expected to improve marginally. The short-term copper price may maintain a high shock pattern, mainly benefiting Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , etc.
Energy metals: the prosperity of the industry continues to rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent
Lithium: the supply shortage is difficult to alleviate, and the price of lithium reaches a new high
In February 2022, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China were 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200% and 180% respectively, and the market penetration reached 19.2%. The downstream terminal demand of lithium salt is strong, and the midstream cathode material enterprises are also accelerating the pace of production expansion. Under the background of supply shortage, the price of lithium salt is expected to continue to strengthen in the future, mainly benefiting Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , etc.
Cobalt: the tight supply and demand situation has not been alleviated, and the price may maintain a strong shock
The supply of cobalt raw materials continues to be tight under the influence of overseas logistics, driving the price of cobalt raw materials to continue to rise. With the continuous rise of raw material costs, the supply of electric cobalt, cobalt salt and other products in China is still in short, the inventory is still low, and the price continues to rise. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the spot market, but with the gradual entry of the peak demand season in March, the short-term cobalt price may operate strongly, and the main beneficiaries include Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Rare earth: supply tension intensifies, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall
Rare earth prices fell slightly this week. At present, the epidemic situation in Myanmar is still severe, the shortage of imported ore supply is increasing, and the supply increment in China is also relatively limited. In the future, with the accelerated release of downstream demand for new energy vehicles, motors and wind power, rare earth prices are expected to continue to strengthen, mainly benefiting China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to superimpose high overseas inflation, and the price of precious metals is strongly supported
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued this week, and the risk aversion in the global market continued to spread, driving the price of precious metals to rise further. Meanwhile, the US CPI hit a new high in February, rising 7.9% year-on-year. Despite the Fed’s continuous release of interest rate hike signals, the market has fully expected this. In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a general rise in commodity prices, which further exacerbated concerns about global inflation and provided strong support for precious metal prices. The main beneficiaries include Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , etc.
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the monetary policy shrinks more than expected, the global epidemic is repeated, etc.
