Core view of this week: on March 11, the central bank released the financial data of February. The overall performance of the financial data in February was significantly lower than expected. The new credit decreased by 130 billion yuan year-on-year, and the loans of residents and enterprises decreased to varying degrees. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of new residents turned negative for the first time to – 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion yuan, even compared with the same period in 2020, It was the first negative in 15 years since the data were released in 2007. Residents’ medium and long-term loans are equal to the balance of the current period minus the balance of the previous period, which is mainly composed of housing mortgage loans. The negative medium and long-term loans of new residents means the net repayment of loans in February, and residents’ demand for house purchase is extremely weak. Although the real estate policy shift has begun at the end of 2021, due to the small strength and scope of the policy before the year, and the impact of the return home purchase tide during the Spring Festival week and the time lag of the policy, the sales area of commercial houses in large and medium-sized cities decreased by 27.3% year-on-year on February 30, boosting the demand of residents for house purchase.
Key policy analysis: 1) on March 8, Zhengzhou municipal government issued the implementation opinions of the general office of Zhengzhou Municipal People’s Government on actively promoting the monetized resettlement of greenhouse residential area reconstruction projects. The construction of resettlement houses will take three years to vigorously promote the monetized resettlement in three years, so as to ensure that the resettlement of people will be completed in 2024. The first monetization policy of shed reform introduced this year, due to the increased implementation of urban policies, the monetization of shed reform releases purchasing power, digests inventory and drives real estate development investment. The relaxation signal of key cities is of strong significance. 2) On March 11, the central bank released the financial data of February, in which the medium and long-term loans of new residents turned negative for the first time to – 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion yuan, the first negative in 15 years since the data were released in 2007. Residents’ demand for house purchase is extremely weak. Although the real estate policy shift has begun at the end of 2021, due to the small strength and scope of the policy before the year, and the impact of the return home purchase tide during the Spring Festival week and the time lag of the policy, the sales area of commercial houses in large and medium-sized cities decreased by 27.3% year-on-year on February 30. With the continuous easing of the follow-up real estate market policy and the easing of the credit environment, the demand for house purchase is expected to be boosted.
One week’s market review: this week (2022 / 3 / 7-2022 / 3 / 13), Shenwan real estate fell 5.48%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.48pct, ranking 25th / 32 among various sectors, and the Hang Seng real estate construction industry index fell – 5.09%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.09pct. The real estate companies with the top three increases this week are: Black Peony (Group) Co.Ltd(600510) (29.48%), Suzhou New District Hi-Tech Industrial Co.Ltd(600736) (20.92%), Casin Real Estate Development Group Co.Ltd(000838) (12.05%). The top three real estate companies that fell this week were Lvjing China real estate (- 27.12%), Yuzhou group (- 24.11%) and Xincheng development (- 22.4%). This week (2022 / 3 / 7-2022 / 3 / 13), the Hang Seng property service and management sector fell – 12.59%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.59pct and the Hang Seng China enterprise index by 4.45pct, ranking 28 / 28 among various sectors. Only Yuexiu service (3.27%) and Ocean Service (0.52%) rose this week. The top three companies that fell this week were Baolong Commerce (- 26.35%), Country Garden Service (- 17.68%) and times neighborhood (- 17.56%).
Real estate market monitoring: this week (2022 / 3 / 5-2022 / 3 / 11), the transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2.0187 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 17.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.6%. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities was 1.457 million square meters, an increase of 4% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. Last week (March 28, 2022-march 6, 2022), the land supply and construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 151377 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 58%, a month-on-month decrease of 48.07%, and the land transaction and construction area was 13.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 73.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 25%. Due to the reduction of supply, the batch sales ratio fell to 1.14.
Financing of real estate enterprises: this week (2022 / 3 / 7-2022 / 3 / 13), the total amount of domestic new bonds issued by real estate enterprises was 13.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a month on month decrease of 18.41%; In terms of trust issuance, 23 real estate trusts were issued this week, with an issuance scale of 1.724 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.37%. The average annual yield is 7.54% and the average term is 1.68 years..
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected, and the policy regulation of real estate tax and pre-sale funds is more than expected. Market risk: the market recovery of the real estate industry is less than expected.
