Weekly observation: pay attention to the supply contradiction of the main line of pigs, the short-term disturbance does not change the long-term trend, and breeding and planting are recommended
As of February 11, 2022, major listed pig breeding enterprises have released pig sales data in February. In February, 12 major listed pig breeding enterprises listed a total of 11.9 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 49%. thetotal is 7897000 / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month / month, respectively, An increase of 60.2% / 114.4% / 40.1% / 76.7% / 104.9% / 62.9% / 42.1% / 2.1% respectively year-on-year Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tiankang Co., Ltd. the number of pigs sold decreased month on month, with 50.0/28.7/12.280000 pigs sold in February, a year-on-year decrease of 33.6% / 5.7% / 19.2% / 20.1% respectively. From the perspective of industry capacity, it is expected that the number of sows that can be bred in the industry will still maintain a downward trend in February. Based on the downward trend of pig prices and the amplification of single breeding loss, we maintain optimistic expectations for the extent of capacity removal from March to may 2022. With the increase of breeding cost, it is more difficult to reduce the cost at the breeding end, and the continuous loss will drive the cost disadvantage long tail to speed up the clearing.
Zhou’s view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales will continue to benefit from the high stock of pigs and poultry. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
The price rise conduction superimposed weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
Market performance this week (3.7-3.11): Agriculture outperformed the market by 0.05 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00% and the agricultural index fell 3.95%, outperforming the market by 0.05 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the fishery sector led the rise, with an increase of 2.43%. Individual stocks led gains with Lontrue Co.Ltd(300175) (+ 12.39%), Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) (+ 11.01%), Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings Co.Ltd(000833) (+ 9.98%).
Price tracking this week (3.7-3.11): the prices of chicken seedlings, medium speed chicken, shrimp and soybean meal rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on March 11, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.01 yuan / kg, down 0.35 yuan / kg compared with the fifth ring last week; The average price of piglets was 23.96 yuan / kg, unchanged compared with the Fifth Ring ratio last week; The average price of white striped meat was 15.94 yuan / kg, down -0.21 yuan / kg compared with the fifth ring last week. Today, the price ratio of pig feed is 3.25:1. According to wind data, on March 11, the average profit of self breeding head was -517.85 yuan / head, compared with -36.05 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is -193.50 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -40.17 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.11 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 18.09%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.81 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 6.11%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was -0.65 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 0.79 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc
