Focus:
On March 11, the central bank released the financial and social finance data for February. Affected by the recurrence of the epidemic, holiday factors and the impulse at the beginning of the year, the volume and structure were further lower than expected. In terms of social finance, the newly added social finance was only 1.19 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of balance fell 0.3pct to 10.2% month on month. Structurally, it was mainly dragged down by credit and undiscounted bills.
Industry and company dynamics
1) on March 8, the central bank handed over the balance profit to the central government, with an amount of more than 1 trillion yuan, which was mainly used to offset tax rebates and increase transfer payments to local governments, support enterprise relief, stabilize employment and ensure people’s livelihood. 2) A number of banks have successively issued notices to adjust the upper limit of customers’ credit card number and strengthen the control of credit card consumption. 3) This week officially entered the annual report performance period, and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) released the first annual report of listed banks in 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 169383 billion yuan (+ 10.3%, YoY) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 36.336 billion yuan (+ 25.6%, YoY) Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) released the performance express of 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 29.361 billion yuan (+ 18.36%, YoY) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.261 billion yuan (+ 29.78%, YoY) Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) disclosed the main operating conditions from January to February, achieving a year-on-year operating income of + 27.94% and a year-on-year net profit attributable to the parent company of + 25.64%; The four major banks of industry, construction, agriculture and China released the business situation from January to February, saying that the main business indicators have made steady progress and achieved a good business start. 4) This week, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) issued 40 billion yuan of secondary capital bonds, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) disclosed that it planned to acquire 41% of the total equity held by other shareholders of Suning consumer fund, and the shareholding ratio increased from 15% to 56% after the acquisition. China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) plans to disclose the annual report next week.
Tracking data
This week, the A-share bank index fell by 4.61%, 0.38 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, and the rise and fall of the sector ranked 17 / 30, among which Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) (- 1.00%), China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) (- 1.47%) and Bank Of Beijing Co.Ltd(601169) (- 1.54%) fell slightly.
Open market operation: this week, the central bank conducted a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repo in the open market, and a total of 380 billion yuan of reverse repo expired. Therefore, a net return of 330 billion yuan in the open market. Next week, the central bank will have 50 billion yuan of reverse repo and 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing in the open market. Shibor: this week, the trend of Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank lending rate rose as a whole. The overnight Shibor interest rate rose by 15bp to 2.05%, and the seven-day Shibor interest rate rose by 5bp to 2.10%.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the macro level mainly disclosed the credit and social finance data in February. The overall volume and structure were lower than expected, and the confidence of medium and long-term loans still needs time to recover. At the industry level, Ping An disclosed the first annual report of listed banks, with good performance. At the same time, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and the four major banks disclosed the operation from January to February. The fundamentals were stable and improved, which helped to further stabilize the market sentiment. We maintain the “recommended” rating of the industry and continue to recommend at the individual stock level: China Merchants, Ping An, Societe Generale, Ningbo, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) etc.
Risk tips:
1) the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and the credit cost has increased significantly;
2) major operational risks of individual banks, etc.
