Data of this week: Wholesale increased year-on-year, and the price of raw materials fell
From January to February, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 3.629 million, a year-on-year increase of + 14.6%. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the cumulative wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from January to February was 740000, a year-on-year increase of + 166.4%. In February, the sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 1.473 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.3% and a month on month decrease of – 31.7%; In February, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 321000, with a year-on-year increase of + 202.7% and a month on month increase of – 23.4%.
The price of raw materials fell this week and remained high as a whole. The average prices of cold rolled sheet, hot rolled coil, aluminum, copper, natural rubber and polypropylene, the main raw materials of automobile and supply chain, were + 0%, – 0.2%, – 6.7%, – 1.1%, – 0.3% and + 0% respectively.
This week’s view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric vehicles, reshaping the industrial order and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ]].
Passenger cars: in a narrow sense, the terminal demand of passenger cars is stable and positive, and the price rise of raw materials is expected to be moderately transmitted to the terminal. At present, the margin of raw materials has increased, which has disturbed the profit margin of the downstream and midstream of automobiles in the short term. However, driven by new energy + export, the terminal demand is still strongly supported. Some automobile enterprises have also gradually started price adjustment and discount tightening, and the cost increase is appropriately transmitted to the terminal. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of smart electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase the configuration of smart electric, so as to improve the market share and improve the brand:
1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving – [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics – [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat – [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass – [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights – [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively);
2) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; [ ; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, in January, China sold 25500 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.3% and a month on month increase of – 24.2%. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommend [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week’s market: poor overall performance, led by other transportation equipment
This week, the A-share auto sector fell by 4.84% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 18th in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 3.96%). In the sub sectors, auto services, parts, buses, passenger cars, trucks and other transportation equipment decreased by 3.62%, 4.67%, 4.81%, 4.86%, 5.93% and 6.97% respectively.
Risk tips
Shortage of chip supply in automobile industry; Fluctuations in raw material costs exceed expectations; The terminal demand of the automobile industry is lower than expected; Automobile export sales were lower than expected.
