Key investment points
Electrical equipment 10834 fell 0.56%, outperforming the market. This week (March 7-march 11, the same below), photovoltaic rose 2.04%, industrial control automation rose 0%, power generation equipment fell 1.98%, lithium battery fell 4.18%, power generation and power grid fell 4.42%, nuclear power fell 4.52%, wind power fell 4.63% and new energy vehicles fell 4.68%. The top five increases are Lanzhou Greatwall Electrical Co.Ltd(600192) , Dianguang Explosion-Proof Technology Co.Ltd(002730) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Eging Photovoltaic Technology Co.Ltd(600537) , Spic Dongfang Energy Corporation(000958) ; The top five declines were Hangzhou Innover Technology Co.Ltd(002767) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , ST Rongjie, Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.Ltd(002125) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: China Automobile Association: in February, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, with a month on month ratio of + 184% / – 23%; Passenger Federation: in February, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 317000, down 24.1% month on month; In February, the output and installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery were 32 and 14 GWH respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 232% / 145% and a month on month increase of + 7% / – 16%; The price of domestic Tesla increased again, and the high configuration model 3 and model y increased by 10000 yuan; 2022 government work report: continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles; China Innovation Airlines issued a prospectus, with a shipment of 10gwh in 21 years and an effective production capacity of 25 / 55gwh in 22-23 years; Rivian announced the use of LFP batteries on standard endurance models; The situation in Russia and Ukraine affected the lithium battery field, and the nickel price doubled in a single day; Metal cobalt is quoted at 573000 yuan / ton, this week + 3.8%, nickel at 231600 yuan / ton, this week + 21.4%, manganese at 33100 yuan / ton, this week – 11.5%, metal lithium at 2.98 million yuan / ton, this week + 6.4%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 517500 yuan / ton, this week + 2.0%, lithium hydroxide at 481900 yuan / ton, this week + 6.6%, electrolyte at 115000 yuan / ton, this week – 4.2%, Lithium hexafluorophosphate is quoted at 535000 yuan / ton, which is – 3.6% this week; EC vinyl carbonate is quoted at 12500 yuan / ton, which is – 13.8% this week; ternary 523 precursor is quoted at 157000 yuan / ton, which is + 10.2% this week; nickel sulfate precursor is quoted at 55500 yuan / ton, which is + 33.7% this week; lithium manganate cathode is quoted at 138500 yuan / ton, which is + 3.7% this week; ternary 622 cathode is quoted at 385000 yuan / ton, which is + 2.7% this week, The price of cathode iron is 8.15 million yuan / week, and the price of cathode iron is 8.15 million yuan / week. New energy: the National Energy Administration: promote the first batch of 100 million kW wind power photovoltaic base projects to be completed and put into operation as soon as possible; The quotation of silicon chip leader is approaching the high point in 2021, and the photovoltaic demand is not weak in the off-season; Increase the deployment in the field of energy storage, and the output of energy storage batteries in China will increase by 146% in 2021; China plans to build a 450 million kW wind power photovoltaic base in the Gobi desert; Notice of the National Energy Administration on carrying out the planning and Research on the integration of renewable energy in major river basins in China; The energy storage subsidy is 0.3 yuan / degree for 3 years! Guide the construction of more than 4 times the scenery of large-scale energy storage projects, and allow the construction of more than 4 times the scenery of large-scale energy storage projects; Longji, Jingao, Huansheng, Jingke and Trina Solar won the bid in advance for the procurement of 15gw components of Huadian The fixed increase of Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) 5 billion yuan was approved, which will be used for the capacity construction of silicon wafer and hjt battery pilot line; Monocrystalline silicon material this week was 249 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The quotation of 166 / 182 / 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 5.5/6.65/8.86 yuan / wafer, which is flat on a month on month basis / + 1.53% / + 1.26%; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.11 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.84 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat.
At the company level: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) : 1) signed the supplementary agreement of Qujing (phase II) project with Qujing municipal government, the scale of monocrystalline silicon wafer was changed from 20GW to 30GW, and the annual output of monocrystalline silicon rod was maintained at 20GW. 2) It is proposed to grant restricted shares and stock options to 2484 incentive objects, with a total of no more than 0.69% of the total share capital. The unlocking target is based on 2020, and the revenue growth rate in 22 / 23 / 24 years is no less than 80% / 120% / 175% Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) : 1) Yiwei power plans to sign a contract with the Management Committee of Jingmen high tech Zone to invest in the construction of 20gwh square lithium iron phosphate battery project and 48gwh power energy storage battery project in Jingmen high tech Zone, with a total investment of about 12.6 billion yuan. 2) It is proposed to implement the ninth employee stock ownership plan and issue no more than 2395200 shares to no more than 3300 employees, accounting for 0.13% of the total share capital Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : from January to February 2022, the revenue will be about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 260% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 860 million yuan, an increase of about 470% at the same time Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) : from January to February 2022, the operating revenue will be about 16 billion yuan, an increase of about 130% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 650% at the same time Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) : the revenue will reach 10.023 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 28.18% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.057 billion yuan, an increase of 26.96% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 916 million yuan, an increase of 32.02% at the same time Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) : the total revenue will reach 3.095 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 35.44% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 643 million yuan, an increase of 62.97% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 597 million yuan, an increase of 76.35% at the same time Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : up to now, there has been no forced liquidation Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) : 1) performance express: in 2021, the total revenue will reach 8.375 billion yuan, an increase of 163.07% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.091 billion, an increase of 183.54% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 824 million yuan, an increase of 238.37% at the same time. 2) From January to February 2022, the revenue will be about 2.348 billion yuan, an increase of about 202.21% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 230 million yuan, an increase of about 113.91% at the same time Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) : 1) release the performance express, and realize the total revenue of 15.971 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 31.88% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.682 billion yuan, an increase of 15.02% at the same time.
2) From January to February 2022, the total operating revenue will be about 3.06 billion yuan, an increase of about 40% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 290 million yuan, an increase of about 30% at the same time Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) : from January to February 2022, the operating revenue is about 425 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 95 million yuan, an increase of about 160% at the same time Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) : it is proposed to invest 10 billion yuan to build a green photovoltaic new energy base in Qujing, including a manufacturing base with a scale of no less than 10GW high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and 5GW components and a new energy power station project Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) : 1) the subsidiary Trina Solar power plans to invest in the construction of Linze Tianhai 200MW / 400mwh shared energy storage power station project in Linze County, mainly building a 200MW / 400mwh shared energy storage power station, output lines and relevant supporting facilities. 2) 210 mm self-developed by the company × 210 mm high-efficiency i-topcon battery has been certified with the highest battery efficiency of 25.5%, creating a new world record for the efficiency of large-scale industrialized n-type monocrystalline silicon i-topcon battery Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) : elgama company, a wholly-owned subsidiary, confirmed to win the bidding of smart watt hour meter project of PGE company. The estimated winning amount is 76.466 million zloty, which is converted into 108 million yuan.
Investment strategy: in February, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China exceeded the market expectation to reach 330000, with a month on month ratio of + 184% / – 23%. We estimate that the sales volume of 450000 + in March and Q1 will exceed 1.2 million. We believe that there is no suspense about 6 million + (with an increase of 70%) in the whole year, while the market expectation is only 5-5.5 million; The slight month on month growth in Europe and the United States in February is in line with market expectations. We expect a significant recovery in March, with 10 million vehicles worldwide + (an increase of 60%), and we emphasize that the core driver of demand is the transformation of many new models and motorized consumption habits. In terms of supply, after lithium carbonate quickly exceeded 500000 yuan / ton, the increase has slowed down significantly last week. The inventory of lithium battery cathode manufacturers has generally decreased to about one month, lithium iron phosphate is shorter, and the nickel price riot is only a short-term game phenomenon. The overall output in March increased by 5-10% month on month compared with January. The supply of diaphragm and graphitization is tight. We have observed that we have been worried about sales and supply for a long time, The sales volume continued to exceed the market expectation and the beautiful performance from January to February has begun to enhance the confidence of the market. The valuation callback to 15-40x is already the lower limit of the bottom. We are strongly optimistic about the oversold reversal of the electric vehicle sector and push the leaders of all links. In 2022, the demand for PV is big. In January, China’s distributed, especially household, nearly 3gw exceeded the market expectation, and the energy price rose. The demand for PV in Europe will exceed the market expectation. The EU raised the cumulative installed capacity in 2030 to 1tw, which is more optimistic in the medium term. The overall Q1 production increase exceeded the market expectation, the Q2 demand is strong, the component profit is improved, the silicon material performance is satisfactory, and the inverter profit is expected to be gradually repaired, In 2022, the installed capacity is 240250gw, with an increase of nearly 50%. In China, we expect about 90gw, with an increase of 65% +. We continue to be optimistic about components, inverter links and high-quality leaders. The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the prosperity began to pick up in December of the 21st year. The growth of leading orders from January to February exceeded the market expectation, and the strong leader is always strong. It is suggested to focus on the layout. We expect that the investment in power grid will increase steadily, and the new power system will bring structural opportunities. The focus will be on grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization, pumped storage and other directions. After the rush installation of wind power, the cost has decreased significantly, and the export has begun to be competitive. It is expected to develop steadily under the background of carbon neutrality in China.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (the global leader of power battery has greatly exceeded market expectations, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantages), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (the power lithium battery has gradually become the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (the global leader of wet diaphragm with strong profitability), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel positive lead and high increase period of capacity release) Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leading, leading in new lithium salt), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (gradual recovery of general automation demand and comprehensive breakthrough of powertrain), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components with strong comprehensive strength), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader in negative electrode and diaphragm coating), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (expectation of iron lithium demand supermarket and profit inflection point) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers and high-volume growth can be expected), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (carbon nanotube conductive agent leader, entering the upper volume stage), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader in inverters and forward-looking layout of energy storage), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (210 component leader and outbreak of household systems), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed market expectations and external supply of blade batteries accelerates) Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (series inverter leader, high performance growth), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component leader, 2022 profit elasticity can be expected), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter, power of energy storage business), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (silicon and perc battery leader, profit supermarket expectation) Hemai Co., Ltd. (the shipment of micro reverse lead is expected to double continuously, and the US market starts to increase in volume), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe lead, photosensitive dry film loading), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt lead, positive prepolymer lead), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (new and old relay global leader, exceeding the market expectation in 2021), Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (ternary prepolymer global leader, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Jingke energy, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
