Industrial metals: in the macro aspect, the European Central Bank kept the three major interest rates unchanged, announced that it would accelerate the end of the asset purchase plan, and significantly raised the inflation expectation in 2022 from 3.2% to 5.1%, and the GDP growth expectation in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.7%. European Central Bank President Lagarde acknowledged that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the EU sanctions against Russia have had an impact on the eurozone economy, but the European Central Bank said it would not consider raising interest rates until the third quarter of this year, and the eurozone economy can still maintain its recovery vitality this year. In terms of fundamentals, the inventory of copper, aluminum and other major metal varieties remains low. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic affect the supply side. Under the steady growth policy, infrastructure investment is also expected to pick up and continue to be optimistic about metal prices. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: high inflation, high copper price shock
LME copper closed at US $9860 / ton, down 4.71% from last week. On the supply side, the pace of resumption of production of Chinese smelters was relatively stable in February. According to SMM, the output in February was 835700 tons, which increased synchronously with the month on month; According to the smelter plan in March, the northern smelter will gradually recover from the interference of the Winter Olympic Games. It is expected that China’s electrolytic copper output in March will be 865900 tons, an increase of 3.6% month on month and 0.6% year-on-year. On the demand side, the recovery of demand after the festival was slow. According to SMM, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in February was 46.42%, a month on month decrease of 9.83pct and a year-on-year increase of 5.8pct; In February, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises was 67.50%, down 11.19 PCT month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 4.83 PCT. Macroscopically, the US inflation expectation is high, but the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to ferment, European energy prices are high, while the European Central Bank maintains the three major interest rates unchanged, and copper prices may still be supported.
Aluminum: the profit of electrolytic aluminum has narrowed slightly, paying attention to the turning point of China’s de warehousing
LME aluminum closed at $3480 / ton, down 9.39% from last week. On the supply side, according to SMM, China’s electrolytic aluminum has entered the stage of rapid resumption of production. Yunnan electric power has eased, Yunnan Aluminum and Shenhuo can return to the level before production reduction, and the resumption of production can reach one million tons in the next three months. Guangxi, Qinghai, Shanxi, Guizhou, Gansu and other provinces and regions also plan to start resumption of production. On the demand side, UHV delivery volume. The operating rate of China’s aluminum cable industry in February was better than expected. According to SMM, the comprehensive operating rate of China’s aluminum cable industry in February was 33.18%, with a month on month decrease of only 0.6pct and a year-on-year increase of 6.55pct. The operating rate in March continues to be better than that in the same period of previous years or will reach about 43%. At the same time, the demand for aluminum in real estate and other fields under the steady growth policy is also expected to pick up. In terms of inventory, SMM counted that China’s electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1142000 tons, up from 22000 tons to 1142000 tons last Thursday. According to our calculation, driven by the costs of alumina and electricity price, the net profit of electrolytic aluminum narrowed slightly to 3901 yuan / ton this week. Macroscopically, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect the supply side. Rio Tinto may stop the supply of bauxite with Rusal’s aluminum oxide plant in Ireland. At the same time, aluminum demand is expected to improve and aluminum prices may remain high.
Tin: both supply and demand are weak, and the price of tin has decreased significantly
LME tin closed at US $44250 / ton, down 7.33% from last week. On the supply side, the repeated outbreaks in Myanmar have increased the uncertainty of mine supply. According to SMM, the operating rate of Yunnan Jiangxi smelter continues to rise slightly this week compared with last week. As China’s mainstream smelters enter the stable production stage, the output may return to normal in March. On the demand side, the sharp fluctuation of tin price this week made the downstream enterprises more cautious, and the market trading was relatively light in the middle of the week. At present, tin prices fluctuate sharply under the weakness of both supply and demand.
Zinc: affected by mood, the price of zinc fluctuated downward
LME zinc closed at US $3830 / ton, down 6.36% from last week. At the macro level, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, European natural gas and electricity prices have repeatedly hit high levels, and zinc cost pressure is still on. On the supply side, since the mines in the north have not resumed production this week, the supply of refineries in the north is tight. On the demand side, the start-up of galvanizing enterprises went down, the pressure on finished product inventory was large, the start-up of die-casting enterprises increased slightly, and the high zinc price fell, driving the increase of orders. At the same time, the operating rate of zinc oxide continued to rise, and the mood of enterprise stock preparation increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven places was 285200 tons, an increase of 1000 tons over last week. Overall, affected by the mood, Lun zinc fell 6.36% compared with last week.
Energy metals: the production, sales and battery installation data of new energy vehicles in February 2022 are in line with expectations. According to the China Automobile Association and the power battery alliance, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, up more than 180% year-on-year and down about 20% month on month, while the battery output in February was 31.8gwh, up + 236% year-on-year and flat month on month; The loading volume was 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 145% and a month on month increase of – 16%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and battery installation data in February were in line with expectations, and continued to be optimistic about the price of energy metals. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: the price of lithium hydroxide increased significantly, and the price difference with lithium carbonate continued to narrow
This week, the price of lithium carbonate was 502000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.4%, and that of battery grade lithium hydroxide was 480500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 6.0%. On the supply side, the manufacturers have successively completed the maintenance this week, and part of the output in Qinghai has been released, and the overall supply has increased. On the demand side, the sales volume and battery installation data in February are in line with expectations. In addition, the downstream material manufacturers have basically completed the stock preparation in March recently. Some iron lithium manufacturers are still in the negotiation stage with the battery side, and the high price of lithium salt is still an important reason affecting the purchasing sentiment. The purchase of lithium carbonate is light this week, while the purchase demand of lithium hydroxide has increased. The overall supply and demand pattern is still dominated by large-scale destocking, and the price increases rapidly. At this stage, the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate has gradually narrowed to a relatively reasonable range.
Cobalt: the supply of cobalt raw materials is tight, and the price of cobalt continues to rise
This week, the price of electrolytic cobalt was 573500 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.6%. The supply side is still tight. The external price rose significantly this week, driving the rise of China’s power cobalt market. However, due to the influence of sentiment and the weakening of China’s downstream demand, the price rose slowly in the middle of the week. In terms of intermediate products, the pricing base is rising rapidly. The declaration of dangerous chemicals increases the transportation cost of raw materials, which is difficult to alleviate the instability of shipping schedule and the tight logistics, supporting the upward price of intermediate products.
Nickel: long short game, nickel price rose sharply
LME nickel closed at $48033 / ton, up 64.89% from last week. Under the long and short game, the LME nickel price once rose to $100000 / ton in the middle of the week, and the SHFE nickel price rose with it. The high price of imported raw materials priced at the LME price affected the downstream purchasing sentiment. However, after the middle of the week, Castle Peak announced that there was spot delivery, and the long and short force reversed. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side of nickel salt is still tight. Although some high nickel matte production is released in Qingshan, the current capacity matching in the downstream is limited, and it is difficult to greatly increase the output of nickel sulfate.
According to SMM, from the balance of February and March, it is expected to reduce the stock. On the whole, due to the tight supply, the price of nickel sulfate may still rise slowly.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not been alleviated, and the upward trend has been maintained after the rise and fall of gold prices
COMEX gold closed at US $1922.3 per ounce this week, up 0.88% from last week. According to the data of the U.S. Bureau of labor statistics, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.9% year-on-year in February, and the core CPI excluding energy and food increased by 6.4% year-on-year. The growth rate accelerated again, the fastest increase since June 1982, higher than market expectations. The dollar index fell first and then rose, and the gold price rose and fell in the middle of the week. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank deleted the statement of ending the asset purchase plan not long before the interest rate increase at this interest rate meeting. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine warmed up again this week, and the European economic outlook more affected by war and sanctions may weaken. Driven by risk aversion, gold prices rose and fell, maintaining an upward trend.
Rare earth: the downstream inquiry was cold, and the price of rare earth fell slightly
This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 1.075 million yuan / ton, down 3.41% year-on-year. In February, the replenishment of magnetic material enterprises has been completed, and the inventory is still sufficient. The inquiry list of rare earth mainstream oxides is cold this week. On the supply side, according to SMM, the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China exceeded 70000 tons in 2021, and the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in the recycling industry reached 23000 tons, accounting for 30%. With the active expansion of the downstream magnetic material industry, SMM expects the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in the rare earth recycling market to reach 28000 tons in 2022. In addition to neodymium iron boron waste, The dismantling of waste motors is also a major supply for the recycling market. On the demand side, the demand for rare earth permanent magnets brought by new energy vehicles, wind power and industrial motor efficiency improvement is expected to continue to increase, and the price of rare earth metals is expected to remain high. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
