Core view
On November 11, the State Council formulated the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), and nmpa approved five covid-19 antigen self-test kits, including Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) . As a supplement to nucleic acid detection, antigen self-test kit is used in grass-roots medical institutions without nucleic acid detection ability, isolated observers and residents with self-test needs. With the change of China's epidemic prevention policy and China's thinking of opening up in the future, the demand for antigen self-test will be rapidly enlarged, and the income of relevant companies will also be transferred from Europe, America and other countries to China, which will have a positive impact on the short-term market sentiment. At present, the ttm-pe of pharmaceutical biology is 28.7 times, which is at the bottom of the historical valuation, 19.1% higher than the 24.1 times of the historical most underestimated value (20190131); The valuation premium relative to the CSI 300 index is 146%, which is also at a historical low, highlighting the value of industry allocation.
The prospect of the new drug epidemic and diagnosis industry chain continues to rise
Covid-19 oral medicine has a great impact on China's intermediate and API industry, and the increment to the industry is expected to reach about 10%. Cdmo and API enterprises belong to the same industrial chain and share the fruits of growth together. The valuation of API is moving closer to cdmo. There are three logical changes in the API industry: 1. API and cdmo belong to advanced manufacturing industry. The former emphasizes scale effect and cost control, while the latter emphasizes service capability and R & D efficiency. However, after the new drug is listed, when the raw material procurement cost is an important consideration, the raw material drug enterprises have the ability to compete and cooperate with cdmo enterprises. 2. The supply side reform of API will be similar to that of chemical industry, and the industry concentration is expected to be greatly improved. The notice on the implementation plan for promoting the high-quality development of API Industry issued in November 2021 is a long-term and deep-seated logic. The upgrading of the export structure of the API industry is slow, and the international competitive advantage of high value-added products is not strong. The API should be developed under the background of the national dual carbon policy, strictly implement the access standards of environmental protection, safety and energy conservation, benchmark the international leading level, and carry out cleaner production audit, evaluation and certification. 3. With the cyclical reversal, the profits of API enterprises returned to growth. In 2021, affected by the epidemic situation abroad, the demand for non covid-19 pharmaceutical products was insufficient; At the same time, the price of upstream chemical raw materials rose sharply, and the profit of long-term association orders fell sharply due to factors such as transportation and exchange rate. In 2022, the order price of API long-term association increased one after another, the demand for foreign non covid-19 pharmaceutical products recovered, and other factors were also changing in the opposite direction.
The Growth Logic of traditional Chinese medicine and medical consumer goods goes through cattle and bears
In 2022, the government will strengthen the implementation of the "report on the revitalization of traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine" and strengthen the implementation of the "report on the revitalization of traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine" in 2021. The advantages of traditional Chinese medicine are the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases and the prevention and treatment of diseases. The treatment of coronary heart disease and angina pectoris have a brilliant future in the field of chronic diseases, such as degenerative neuropathy (such as Blzheimer's disease) and microangiopathy (such as diabetic retinopathy).
Focus on the company
It's a good to 19 industry chain: the industry chain: the industry chain: the cost of the raw material and the cost of the raw material is the one that '' '' '' '' '' '' ''' '' '' '' '''Is the one that costs the cost of the cost. The industry chain: the industry chain chain: the industry chain: the industry chain:: forthe Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) of the Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) for the \ , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , etc; Traditional Chinese medicine: resource-based, Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) ; Big pharma, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) ; Formula granules, Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Chinese traditional medicine, Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) and Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) etc; (category) OTC, Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc; Consumer medical care: Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Meinian Onehealth Healthcare Holdings Co.Ltd(002044) and Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) etc; Innovation, independent control and going to sea: Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) , Youcare Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(688658) and Chengdu Easton Bio Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688513) etc.
Risk tips: the risk of uncertainty in China's epidemic process, the risk of drastic changes in the international environment, etc
