Trade and energy issues have escalated and global metal supply tensions have intensified
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued this week, and the risk of global electrolytic nickel supply increased. Affected by the low inventory of LME electrolytic nickel, there was a warehouse squeeze. China’s spot nickel price also rose by 22% to 235000 yuan / ton. Due to the continuous rise of crude oil and energy prices, the tension of global metal supply intensified. Aluminum and nickel accounted for 6% and 10% of Russia’s supply respectively, and the unit energy consumption was high, so the price support was strong, Nickel is suggested to pay attention to Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , aluminum is suggested to pay attention to Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , aluminum standard of hydropower, etc.
Lithium battery materials: the demand for new energy continues to be strong, and lithium battery raw materials continue to rise
Lithium: according to Baichuan information, the quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate this week was 500000 yuan / ton, up 2.1% from last week, the quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 520000 yuan / ton, up 2.6% from last week, and the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide powder was 485000 yuan / ton, up 7.8% from last week. The supply of lithium concentrate in Australia is reduced, the operation of lithium salt manufacturers is not saturated, the overall output increment is not obvious, the tight market supply situation is difficult to alleviate, and the lithium price is expected to continue to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) etc.
Nickel: LME nickel price this week was US $48033 / ton, up 64.9%; The nickel price in the previous period was 222190 yuan / ton, up 18.7%. The mainstream transaction price of high nickel iron this week was 1568 yuan / ton, up 3.3% from last week; The mainstream transaction price of low nickel iron market was 5450 yuan / ton, the same as last week. The price of battery grade nickel sulfate was 51000 yuan / ton, up 21.7% from last week. Russia’s supply accounts for 10% of the world’s total. The risk of upstream resource disturbance has increased, the dual control of energy consumption has superimposed the growth of new energy demand, and the tight balance between nickel supply and demand continues. It is suggested to pay attention to Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) .
Rare earth & permanent magnet: in terms of rare earth, light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide was 1075000 yuan / ton, down 2.7%; Medium heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide 3050 yuan / kg, down 2.6%; Terbium oxide 15000 yuan / kg, down 2.0%. The first batch of rare earth mining quotas and smelting separation indicators in 22 years were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively, an increase of only 20% over the previous year, and the supply of rare earth resources was less than expected; With the implementation of the motor energy efficiency improvement plan and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles, the downstream demand for rare earth continues to grow. It is suggested to pay attention to Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) and so on.
Industrial metals: energy prices support industrial metal prices
The price changes of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel and tin in the previous period of this week were – 1.0%, – 6.5%, – 1.3%, – 1.2%, 18.7% and 0.3%; On the supply side, the start-up capacity of China’s electrolytic aluminum enterprises continues to rise, and some enterprises have completed the resumption of production and started the new capacity production plan; Demand side: with the gradual entry into the traditional peak consumption season, the downstream demand is expected to gradually improve, the external price remains high, China’s aluminum exports are improving, and the aluminum supply and demand maintain a tight balance. Aluminum suggests paying attention to Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , aluminum targets of hydropower, etc; Copper suggests paying attention to Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) .
Small metals & new materials: rising prices of uranium and magnesium
Uranium and magnesium prices rose 17.1% and 2.4% this week. Benefiting from the supply side reform of the manganese industry and the increase in the amount of manganese used by Tesla‘s new 4680 battery, the price of manganese and related manganese products are expected to continue to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to rare metal targets such as southern manganese industry, Guizhou Redstar Developing Co.Ltd(600367) , Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.Ltd(002125) and CGN mining, Nanjing Yunhai Special Metals Co.Ltd(002182) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) and so on.
