Key points of this week:
A shares fell this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 330975, with a weekly change of – 4.00%. The weekly change of food and beverage sector was – 2.06%, which was 1.94 percentage points stronger than the market, ranking fourth in Shenwan industry classification.
This week, the food and beverage sectors rose from high to low: Baijiu (-0.64%), pre processed food (-1.55%), meat products (-3.08%), dairy products (-3.11%), other alcoholic beverages (-3.76%), soft drinks (-5.32%), beer (-6.31%), flavouring fermented products (-6.60%), health products (-7.92%), snack foods (-8.28%).
[Baijiu]: leading enterprises have taken the lead in disclosing high growth, and the quarterly reports have been ahead of schedule, while the stable counterattack horn has blown the leading enterprises of liquor enterprises to disclose high growth, and the industry’s toughness has grown stronger than expected. Recently, four leading liquor enterprises, which are typical representatives of high-end, sub high-end and real estate liquor, disclosed their operation from January to February. From the perspective of year-on-year growth rate of revenue / profit, Maotai 20% / 20%, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) 35% + / 50% +, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) 25% / 26%, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) 120% / 130%. Considering the short interval between New Year’s day and Spring Festival last year, the epidemic situation in Henan, Shaanxi and other places was relatively serious before the Spring Festival, The high growth of the four liquor enterprises was much higher than expected, which once again confirmed the enhanced resilience of the industry and the prominent advantages of robustness, certainty and growth of high-quality leaders. Due to the small proportion in March, the 1 quarterly report of the four companies is growing at a high level. According to our tracking, the other famous Baijiu liquor also has excellent performance.
The quarterly market started ahead of schedule, and the horn of counterattack in stability has sounded. In the short term, the occurrence of the epidemic has slightly suppressed the spread of mainstream single products, and there has been a recurrence of the outflow of the north. The recent adjustment of Baijiu has already reflected the impact of the epidemic on some market moves. Some of the Baijiu valuation has dropped to even below the 2019 level. Under the assumption of a neutral level, some wine enterprises already have 3 years and 1 times space. It has high certainty and good demand for yield. The disclosure of Maofen Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) January February operating data is expected to become a catalyst for the market to develop from decline to stable and directional counter attack, and the quarterly report market is deduced in advance.
Active layout, there are still many positive catalysts throughout the year. In addition to the certainty of performance, some liquor enterprises still have positive events such as price increase of large single products, equity incentive and new product upgrading this year. With the setting and implementation of the annual economic goals, the overall consumption environment is expected to gradually climb. Considering the continuous improvement of the comprehensive competitiveness of famous and high-quality liquor enterprises and the safety margin of the valuation of high-end and sub high-end leaders, we are optimistic about the outlook for the whole year and suggest a positive layout, focusing on the high-end maowulu, sub high-end Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , etc.
[beer]: the transmission of price increase is smooth, and the performance elasticity is expected to be released in peak season
At present, although there are still repeated epidemics in some regions, and the catering channels have not fully recovered to the pre epidemic level, with the improvement of control efficiency, the sales volume in peak season is expected to increase compared with the same period last year, and the superimposed price increase effect is expected to release the performance elasticity. From January to February, the dynamic sales of Tsingtao beer was good. The driving factors included the recovery of the epidemic situation, the change of market competition pattern and the growth of sales of high value-added products. The company increased the tendency of profit assessment in 2022, and the ban on equity incentive will be lifted in the middle of the year. For Wusu, a large single product, heavy beer will successively introduce white beer, black beer and other products in Xinjiang into markets outside Xinjiang in 2022, and actively cooperate with the implementation of the plan of big cities. From the perspective of fundamentals, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , and China Resources beer stand side by side as the first judge. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) potential reform opportunities.
[condiment]: the rise of short-term costs affects the gross profit margin, and it is suggested to bargain hunting after the correction
Seasoning has a short-term base problem. Last year, the Q1 revenue and profit base of enterprises were mostly high, which suppressed the market expectation in the first quarter. However, from a fundamental point of view, although the current epidemic situation is repeated at many points, the just needed properties of condiments remain unchanged. At the same time, although the bulk prices, including molasses, soybeans and other raw materials, have further increased after the festival, which has put pressure on the costs of enterprises, it is expected that the price increase implemented last year can alleviate some of the upward pressure on costs, Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) etc. are expected to complete the price transmission as soon as possible around March. From Q2 this year, the income and profit elasticity of some condiments will increase under the low base. After a certain correction in the market, most companies have been in a reasonable range of valuation. It is suggested to bargain hunting and layout high-quality condiment enterprises. At present, Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , which has relatively high certainty and elasticity, and Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , which has more short-term callbacks, are recommended.
[dairy products]: the new year is a good start, and the marketing of the Winter Olympic Games is effective
After the epidemic, the demand for dairy products continued to be resilient. The holding of the Winter Olympic Games made brand marketing a hot spot again, and the head dairy enterprises have invested in the marketing activities of the Winter Olympic Games. Although the sales expenses have increased year-on-year, the better dynamic sales market of the Spring Festival and the high-end upgrading brought by festival gifts have boosted the profit side. It is expected that the steady growth trend of the first quarter will continue in the second quarter. This week, Yili released business data from January to February that exceeded market expectations, which once again verified the resilience of demand for dairy products and the slowdown of competition. We believe that although the overall supply and demand of raw milk was tight in 22 years, the year-on-year growth slowed down, the cost pressure of dairy enterprises weakened, and the slowing competition will accelerate the release of profits. The dairy industry focuses on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy, China flying crane, New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) .
[quick freezing]: there is a strong demand for prefabricated vegetables & frozen baking
Recently, the epidemic has been repeated at many points, and the consumption demand of home dining scene has increased, which has further tapped the demand of residents, improved the consumption habits of C-end consumers and the business strategy of b-end catering enterprises. With the upsurge of prefabricated vegetables, the supply chain has also ushered in sustainable development. With the improvement of the demand for convenient and fast meal preparation, the prosperity of industrialized food products such as prefabricated dishes and frozen baking is better, focusing on Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) .
Baijiu channel dynamics
[ Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ]: Feitian rated 3110 full containers (Mom – 20 yuan) and 2740 bulk bottles (Mom – 15 yuan) this week. At present, the dealers generally complete the payment collection in March, and the quota in March has not been fully delivered. At present, the payment is still collected according to 969, the dealers have not been notified of the meeting, and the 22-year contract has not been signed. Maotai 1935 bid 1500 yuan (Mom – 75 yuan), mainly due to the recent new quota in place, the supply and demand gap narrowed, and the bid fell.
[ Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ]: this week’s general five price is 965 yuan (the same month on month), the seventh generation general five price is 970 yuan, which exceeds the eighth generation general five, and the general five has a strong willingness to replenish. At present, the first quarter payment collection has been completed, some dealers have completed the annual payment collection, and the quota shipment in March has been completed. The delivery progress is more than 35-40%. The Spring Festival mobile sales have performed well. At present, it is in the stage of stable digestion of inventory after the Festival. It is expected that the subsequent efforts will be made with the company’s market control, and the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) approval price is expected to rise.
The classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) bid price is 17001800 yuan, and the transaction price is about 2100 yuan. The supply has been controlled in 22 years. With the improvement of scarcity, the bid price is expected to stabilize and recover.
[ Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ]: this week’s national cellar price is 920 yuan (unchanged month on month). At present, the payment collection of Q1 has been completed, and the progress of payment collection is 40-50%, and the progress of delivery is about 40%. The reissue will be started with the payment of Q2 at the beginning of this month. For the new round of payment, the proportion of unplanned 960 is different among different dealers, and the proportion of unplanned 960 is not mandatory. Some dealers pay according to 960 completely, and the manufacturer subsidizes the upside down price difference. At present, the channel inventory is less than 1 month.
[ Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ]: this week, M6 + has a low rating of 600 yuan and a height of about 650 yuan (the same month on month), m3 crystal bottle has a low rating of 405415 yuan (the same month on month), a height of about 460 yuan (the same month on month), sky blue has a low rating of 230 yuan, a height of 305 yuan, sea blue has a low rating of 125 yuan (the same month on month), and the performance of sea blue outside the province has improved, with a height of 143 yuan (the same month on month + 1 yuan). At present, the average progress of payment collection is more than 45-50%, the delivery is consistent with the payment collection, and the inventory is within 1.5 months.
[Jiannanchun]: the rated price of crystal sword this week is 398 yuan (month on month + 3 yuan). During the Spring Festival, restrictions on large-scale banquets in some areas have a phased impact on Jiannanchun’s mobile sales. At present, Jiannanchun has completed the delivery in February, the channel inventory has maintained a healthy level for about two months, and the overall performance of mobile sales and price is stable.
[willing]: this week, taste is willing to bid 345 yuan and wisdom is willing to bid 455 yuan. After a small amount of replenishment at the end of February, the payment progress is about 30%. At present, the channel inventory is at the normal level of about 1-1.5 months.
[ Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ]: the price of zhenniang No. 8 this week is 320 yuan (the same month on month), and the price of well platform is 440 yuan (the same month on month). At present, the payment collection is about 30% – 35% at a good start. Within 2 months after full delivery, the channel inventory is stable during the Spring Festival. According to the feedback from Jiangsu Province, the growth during the Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) Spring Festival is prominent, and the volume of large single product zhenniang No. 8 has increased by 10-15%.
[ Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ]: the price of Guoyuan Xinsi opening this week is about 420430 yuan, and the price of counter opening is about 265 yuan. 22q1 Spring Festival peak season collection is about 35% – 40%, and the average inventory level is about 1.5 months. During the Spring Festival, V3 opened a large volume in Nanjing and other traditionally strong markets with relatively high consumption levels.
[ Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ]: this week, the wholesale price of Qinghua 30 revival version is 830 yuan (the same month on month), the high wholesale price of Qinghua 20 is 375 yuan (the same month on month), and the wholesale price of Bofen whole box (12 bottles) is 520 yuan (the same month on month). The quota system is strictly adopted for Qinghua series and Bofen, and the inventory is maintained at a low level within one month. Fenjiu started the Spring Festival peak season in January. At present, it has completed about 30% – 35%, and the delivery progress is about 30%. After arrival, the dynamic sales performance is good.
[ Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ]: the bidding price of this week is 810 yuan (the same month on month), and the bidding price of hongtan is 290 yuan (the same month on month). At present, the proportion of payment collection is about 40%, the inventory in Hunan channel is about 1 month, and the inventory outside the province is about 2 months, and the dynamic sales remain benign.
The key recommendation: still maintain the first quarter Baijiu dominant judgement, the key recommendation: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . Food stocks continue to be bullish: Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , etc.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumption; The economy is in recession.
