One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC class I) fell 1.01%, 3.21 percentage points ahead of the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 4.22%, and the gem index fell 3.03%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment decreased by 2.92%, wind power decreased by 4.63% and photovoltaic increased by 2.04%.
Photovoltaic:
1. Under the background of increasing demand boom, the price of crystalline silicon industry chain continues to rise. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the price of silicon material has increased for 8 consecutive weeks, and the maximum transaction price of single crystal re feeding has returned to the high level of 250000 yuan / ton. Under the background of maintaining a relatively high demand, the price will remain stable in the short term; In addition, Longji and Tongwei successively raised the prices of silicon wafer (182 silicon wafer increased by 0.2 yuan / piece) and battery wafer (182 / 210 battery wafer increased by 0.01/0.02 yuan / W respectively) on March 7 / 8, and the price of photovoltaic crystalline silicon industry chain continued to rise.
2. The certainty of high growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2022 is further enhanced. (1) The European Commission issued the outline of the “REpower EU” plan, and the International Energy Agency proposed the “EU plan to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas”, which all proposed that the EU should vigorously develop the construction of new energy projects. (2) The “14th five year plan” of five provinces in China plans to add nearly 100gw of photovoltaic installed capacity. The superimposed scenery base project will be gradually started with the price decline of the industrial chain, and China’s photovoltaic demand has strong support. (3) The situation in Russia and Ukraine has boosted the continuous rise of energy prices. The prices of natural gas and oil have reached a recent high. The rapid rise in the price of traditional energy will also promote overseas countries to accelerate the transformation to wind and solar renewable energy.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the product prices of all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage is superimposed. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is mainly recommended to recommend Jingke energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) 。 (2) In 2022q1, the price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, the shortage of structural supply and demand and other factors. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , especially Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. The bidding price of wind turbines in China continues to decline, and the domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of the wind power industry. Recently, the bidding prices of China’s sea breeze and land breeze have continued to decline (in terms of sea breeze, the quotation of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) including tower of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 sea breeze project is 3548 yuan / kW; in terms of land breeze, the quotation of prospective energy including tower of China Resources Power UTRA Zhongqi project is as low as 1889 yuan / kW), When the bidding price drops rapidly, if the enterprise wants to maintain its profitability, it needs to open source (sea + offshore wind power) and reduce expenditure (localization of parts and components and cost reduction); In the context of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of China’s offshore wind power during the 14th five year plan period is expected to exceed expectations.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
