Liquidity: in February, the growth rate difference of m1m2 converged to -4.5pct month on month. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in February 2022 was 51.44, a month on month increase of + 6.57%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Composite Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 4.5 percentage points in February 2022, with a month on month increase of + 7.2 percentage points.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the weekly output and inventory of hot coil are at a low level in the same period of 6 years. (1) Price changes this week: thread + 0.81%, cement price index + 1.04%, rubber + 0.00%, coke + 6.25%, coking coal + 4.61%, iron ore + 1.73%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were -1.71pct, + 3.97pct, + 2.50pct and + 4.46pct respectively; (3) The output of hot-rolled coils this week was 2.9494 million tons, and the total weekly inventory was 3.4363 million tons.
Chain of real estate completion: the price and profit of flat glass decreased month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.51% and – 3.67% month on month respectively this week; (2) The profit of titanium dioxide this week was 2914 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 11.08%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 307 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 37.22%; (3) The price of PVC was 949100 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.15%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire rose to a high level in the same period of 5 years month on month. (1) The price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 0.18%, – 1.07%, – 6.70% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 24.87%, – 6.49%, – 23.42%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 72.00%, with a month on month ratio of + 11.61 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: nickel price hit a record high, copper and aluminum price profit fell. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 4037.5 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%; (2) Nickel: the price this week is 225500 yuan / ton, up + 18.25% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 21600 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 8.00%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 5950 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the profit is – 568 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21880 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 6.70%, and the estimated profit is 4171.9 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month ratio of – 23.42%; (6) The price of electrolytic copper is 72220 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 1.07%, and the estimated profit is 6556 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month ratio of – 6.49%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 940 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread is reduced to 190 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 4.97 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar on Friday is 190 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 720 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 30 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.10; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 0.00% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 140 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States is 80%, which is at the median level in the same period. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 336601 this week, with a month on month ratio of – 0.67%; (2) The utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 80.00% this week, with a month on month ratio of + 0.30 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 4.22%. Coal mining (- 2.11%) was the best performing sector in the cycle. The quantile of Pb ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) was 33.66% and 88.60% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.51, and the highest value since 2013 is 0.82 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: according to the report “increased probability of steel output reduction and reappearance of beta opportunities in the industry” issued on March 4, many leaders of the iron and Steel Industry Association have expressed their position successively since mid and late February, and the expectation of industry output reduction has increased. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) ; Recently, the price and profit of electrolytic aluminum are close to the highest level of last year. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
