Market Review
The weekly turnover of first-hand houses in key cities decreased year-on-year and month on month. This week, the transaction area of first-hand houses in key cities reached 2.14 million square meters, down 46.2% year-on-year and 27.5% month on month; Among them, the first tier cities decreased by 23.1%, the second tier cities decreased by 52.4% and the third tier cities increased by 6.5% month on month. In terms of second-hand housing, the transaction area of second-hand housing in the 16 sample cities we selected this week reached 479000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 60.8% and a month on month decrease of 29.9%.
The newly added land supply area of 100 cities increased year-on-year and decreased month on month. This week, the new residential land supply area in Baicheng was 3.72 million square meters, up 31.2% year-on-year and down 21.2% month on month. There is no new residential land supply in the first tier cities; The new housing supply in second tier cities is 1.869 million square meters, with an average price of 5681 yuan / square meter; The new land supply in the third tier cities is 1.854 million square meters, with an average price of 3812 yuan / square meter. Industry highlights: in February, the scale of social financing increased by 1190 billion yuan, compared with 6172.6 billion yuan. Among them, residents’ medium and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, the first negative growth since data statistics. (Financial Associated Press)
Industry perspective:
This week, CITIC Real Estate Index fell 5.7%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 4.2%, and the sector underperformed the market. This week, the sector made a drastic adjustment following the market. In addition, the continued occurrence of industrial risk events also increased the fluctuation of the plot. We believe that the determination of the government work reports of the two sessions to stabilize growth, the repeated outbreaks in China and the negative growth of residents’ medium and long-term loans for the first time in February all show the urgency of continuing the real estate policy. We reiterate our view that 2022q1 is the best configuration window for the real estate and property management sector. There will be an obvious situation that the company alpha is more important than the industry beta in the market performance, and some high-quality companies will stand out. Among them, the performance of central state-owned enterprises and high credit private real estate enterprises in the real estate development sector will be more prominent. The current market conditions and their competitive advantages will help them obtain the opportunity to significantly improve their market share in the medium term. A shares recommended by the developer: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ; Hong Kong stocks: China overseas development, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Xuhui holding group. Property management recommendations include a shares: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ; Hong Kong stocks: Country Garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life. Green City Management Holdings is recommended by the agent construction standard.
Risk tip: upgrading of regulation policies in the real estate industry; Sales and carry forward are less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; The competition intensity of the property management company is upgraded, and the external expansion is blocked.
