Iron and steel industry: China’s iron and steel industry is stable and good, and the trend remains unchanged
Steel prices are strong. As of March 11, the five varieties of thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod reported 5034 yuan / ton, 5333 yuan / ton, 5311 yuan / ton, 5781 yuan / ton and 5310 yuan / ton respectively this week. The weekly ring ratio increased by 101 yuan / ton, 126 yuan / ton, 74 yuan / ton, 108 yuan / ton and 87 yuan / ton respectively. The overall steel price shows strong shock.
In terms of social inventory, it was 17.504 million tons in September, down from 27.04 million tons in September. The factories and warehouses of key enterprises were 5.9241 million tons, down 392600 tons.
Gross profit expansion per ton of steel. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling and wire rod was 645 yuan, 944 yuan, 822 yuan, 742 yuan and 921 yuan respectively, up 162 yuan, 187 yuan, 135 yuan, 169 yuan and 148 yuan compared with last week.
In the short term, the average daily output of key iron and steel enterprises of CISA increased month on month in late February. Considering the impact of production restriction of iron and steel enterprises in the future, the supply elasticity is relatively limited. In terms of inventory, social inventory fell this week. Considering that the current supply has increased, the inventory has fallen, and the steel price is strong, it can be seen that the downstream demand has gradually recovered. However, the “two sessions” and the Paralympic Games are being held. At the same time, there are many outbreaks of the epidemic throughout the country, and the release of demand is not sufficient. In terms of future demand, we believe that steady growth is still the main line of China’s economic work this year. There is still much room for demand after the two sessions, which is expected to support steel prices and corporate profits.
As the main focus of stabilizing the economy, in the field of infrastructure construction, water conservancy and municipal pipe network have been clearly reflected at the policy level. It is expected that with the end of the two sessions and the centralized bid opening and construction in various places, the pipeline demand is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
For high-grade non oriented silicon steel, the government work report said that it would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the demand for non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The supply side release is limited, and the profit of high-end silicon steel is expected to continue to break out this year. Attach importance to enterprises with high grade non oriented silicon steel production capacity. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
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Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) .
Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
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Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) . Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509)
Nonferrous Industry: after short-term adjustment, the sector has more valuation advantages. In the future, it is difficult to alleviate the tension between supply and demand. The spot prices of lithium and rare earth are still expected to continue to rise. We are optimistic about the valuation repair market of rare earth and lithium sector
In the lithium sector, spodumene quoted us $2740 / ton this week, up 0.37%; Lithium hydroxide offered 480500 yuan / ton, up 5.95%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 502000 yuan / ton, up 1.41%. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 1.065 million yuan / ton, 3.06 million yuan / ton and 14.9 million yuan / ton this week, up – 3.45%, – 1.61% and – 1.78% respectively. The spot supply of raw materials in the upstream of new energy continues to be tight, and the state of continuous low inventory in the industrial chain will remain. Driven by the replenishment of inventory by downstream enterprises, we expect the price center of lithium and rare earth to continue to rise;
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future. We are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era;
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices fell 1.02% this week to close at 72150 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price fell 6.51% to close at 22035 yuan / ton. Abroad, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the key factor in the rise and fall of bulk commodities in the past two weeks or so; At present, the military conflict may be alleviated, but the sanctions imposed by western countries on Russian enterprises have just begun, and the global commodity supply chain has entered a remodeling period. In China, with the decline of copper and aluminum prices this week, downstream procurement is significantly more active. Recently, downstream construction has accelerated, and the peak demand season in March has come; Friday’s financial data once again put market expectations into pessimism, but the poor reality may indicate a more proactive steady growth policy.
In terms of aluminum, Rio Tinto plans to stop providing bauxite for Rusal’s okinish alumina plant in Ireland and stop purchasing alumina from the alumina plant. Sanctions against Russia are reshaping the global commodity supply system, and aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate sharply in the short term; Considering the general lack of investment in upstream industries, the rise of commodity price center may be a long-term trend. This week, China’s electrolytic aluminum social inventory accumulated to 1142000 tons, with a decrease of 2000 tons in the last four days. It is expected that the accumulated inventory has been transferred to de inventory, and the construction in the downstream has accelerated. The average profit of China’s simulated electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 5168 yuan / ton, and the sustainability of the profit of electrolytic aluminum may exceed the market expectation.
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\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 111 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 6016 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 07 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
