The growth rate of social finance was lower than expected, and the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan. The central bank released financial credit data for February 2022, and all data were generally lower than market expectations. In February, the total amount of new social financing was 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan; The growth rate of M2 fell with social finance, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2% in February and a decrease of 0.5pct compared with the growth rate of 9.8% in January. RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. Among them, residents’ medium and long-term loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, an increase of 457.2 billion year-on-year. The medium and long-term loans to residents reflect that the current real estate sales fundamentals are still in a depressed state. We expect that under the background of steady growth, the real estate demand side policy may further promote the recovery of the industry and economic growth.
Market review: the increase ranks in the back section, 1.46 percentage points behind the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was – 5.7%, 1.46 percentage points behind the market, ranking 24th among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 21 stocks rose this week, 65 less than last week, and 120 fell. (this week in the report refers to the week from March 5 to March 11).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 2.57 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 20.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.7%. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 502000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 16.5% and a year-on-year ratio of – 50.2%; The sample of second tier cities was 1.464 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 17.1% and a year-on-year ratio of – 37.5%; The third tier cities in the sample were 604000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 29.4% and a year-on-year ratio of – 63.6%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1.088 million square meters, an increase of 4.6% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 27.2%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 344000 square meters, 3.7% month on month; The sample of second tier cities is 625000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 8.4%; The third tier cities in the sample are 119000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 9.9%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 8.883 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 34.3%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 2.615 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 42.6%; The sample of second tier cities was 5.12 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 26.4%; The sample of third tier cities was 1.147 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 26.4%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the issuance of bonds by real estate enterprises continued to recover. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 17 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (3.7-3.13), with a month on month increase of 2; The issuance scale totaled 13.082 billion yuan, down 2.008 billion yuan month on month, the total repayment was 12.662 billion yuan, up 2.939 billion yuan month on month, and the net financing amount was 420 million yuan, down 4.947 billion yuan month on month. The bond interest rates of power construction real estate (23bp), Guangming real estate (8bp) and Suzhou New District Hi-Tech Industrial Co.Ltd(600736) (50bp) companies are higher than those of comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestion: the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the direction of policy easing is clear, maintaining the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. “Continued favorable policies – the bottom of industry fundamentals is expected to rise later – state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition and restore the gross profit margin of land acquisition” is the main logic of 2022, which will achieve three-level resonance upward in fundamentals, industries and enterprises in the later stage. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A, Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
