With the introduction of heavy policy, antigen detection has become an important supplement
In March 11, 2021, the State Health Protection Commission announced that the State Council should integrate the antigen detection as a complement to the New Coronavirus disease prevention and control mechanism integrated group based on the nucleic acid detection, and formulated the “COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan”. The plan not only defines the applicable population for antigen detection, but also includes the main conditions to be met by the three groups for antigen detection and the acquisition channels of detection reagents, and formulates the disposal management process after positive detection, so as to promote the connection between antigen detection and nucleic acid detection. In conclusion, the introduction of the plan further defines the supplementary positioning of antigen detection, improves the ability of “early detection”, and focuses on health institutions that do not have the ability of nucleic acid detection.
Covid-19 antigen detection has become an important supplement, with market space rationality of 30 billion yuan and long-term space of 270 billion yuan
Covid-19 antigen detection has high social value in large-scale and rapid screening detection. Residents can buy detection reagents by themselves and conduct self inspection at home, so as to avoid the inconvenience of waiting for nucleic acid detection results for a long time, reduce the exposure risk in the detection process, and solve the difficulty of nucleic acid detection in remote and grass-roots areas. We expect that from the perspective of rationality, combined with three types of application scenarios, the market scale of diagnosis and treatment and detection demand of grass-roots medical and health institutions is about 5.5 billion yuan, the detection demand of isolated observers is about 2.5 billion yuan, and the self inspection demand of community residents is about 24.9 billion yuan, with an overall total of more than 30 billion yuan. From a long-term perspective, assuming that the society under the normalization of covid-19 is open, it can be divided into static self-test and dynamic large-scale test according to the application scenarios of covid-19 antigen detection. In a comprehensive view, the market scale of antigen detection in a long-term perspective is 270 billion yuan.
The upstream, middle and downstream industrial chain has great prospects
The industrial chain can be divided into upstream raw materials, midstream product manufacturing and production and downstream terminal sales. The gross profit distribution of the industry is calculated according to the relevant gross profit margin level of the industry. After the calculation, the gross profit of the upstream, middle and downstream accounts for 14%, 24% and 60% respectively based on the terminal sales price.
Main raw materials and auxiliary materials for upstream production: main raw materials and auxiliary materials. Referring to the cost splitting of representative antigen listed companies, the sales cost rate of antigen detection is about 40%. In terms of specific splitting, antigen antibody accounts for 27%, NC film and PVC rubber sector account for 5%, auxiliary materials account for 34% and packaging materials account for 12%.
Manufacturing of midstream products: China’s covid-19 antigen detection and self inspection products are ready to be issued. As of March 12, 2022, five covid-19 antigen detection products have been approved in China. It is expected that more manufacturers will get product registration certificates in the future. Considering the potential demand for antigen detection in China, it is expected that companies that have obtained CE certification and US EUA certification in China will also accelerate their registration applications in China.
Downstream terminal sales: the downstream terminals represented by different scenarios and different groups of people in antigen detection are different. According to the current situation of nucleic acid detection, it is inferred that the detection purchaser of grass-roots medical institutions and self-test isolation observers should be government medical insurance through bidding, while it is clear that self-test of community residents at their own expense is personal consumption. In terms of bidding and procurement, Guangdong has been at the forefront, among which covid-19 antigen detection kit won the bid at a price of 16.8 yuan / person. In terms of retail, it is stipulated that it can be purchased through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels.
Investment suggestions and related objects
The introduction of covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial) means that China’s antigen detection market will be opened, and the upstream, middle and downstream will be rapidly expanded. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of the whole industrial chain. The relevant beneficiary listed companies are as follows:
Upstream raw materials
Antigen antibody reagents: Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , youningwei, Feipeng Biology (to be listed), etc;
Auxiliary materials: Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Getein Biotech Inc(603387) , Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , Guangzhou Improve Medical Instruments Co.Ltd(300030) , etc;
Packaging materials: Shanghai Haishun New Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.Ltd(300501) , Xi’An Global Printing Co.Ltd(002799) , Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co.Ltd(002957) , etc;
Midstream manufacturing
China has been approved: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) ;
Overseas approved: Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , an Xu biology, etc;
Downstream terminal sales
Retail pharmacies: Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd(000028) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) , etc;
Pharmaceutical e-commerce: JD health, Alibaba health, Ping an good doctor, Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , etc.
Risk tips
The competition among Chinese manufacturers intensifies, and the price of covid-19 antigen detection kit is at risk of falling; Virus mutation, covid-19 antigen detection kit needs to be updated quickly; Risk of changes in China’s epidemic prevention policies.
