All sub sectors in the post real estate cycle this week lost the market. The CSI 300 index fell 4.22% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, kitchen appliances, services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , white appliances, black appliances, furniture, lighting electricians and small household appliances fell 8.78%, 8.27%, 8.09%, 6.27%, 6.11%, 4.48% and 4.26% respectively this week, underperforming the market by 4.55pct, 4.05pct, 3.86pct, 2.05pct, 1.89pct, 0.26pct and 0.03pct respectively.
Domestic sales: in February, the sales of large kitchen wires turned positive year-on-year growth, and the sales of small kitchen electricity and cleaning appliances fell year-on-year. (1) Price of upstream raw materials: this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture rose, the price of copper and stainless steel rose, the price of aluminum fell, and the price of plastic raw materials rose. (2) China’s real estate demand: in December 2021, the year-on-year decline in the sales area of new houses expanded, and the year-on-year increase in the completed area narrowed; In February 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year in December 2021 and 10.2% year-on-year in December 2019; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in February 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China’s top 10 cities was 23200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 46%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 89000 in January 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 64.2%. (3) Retail tracking: in December 2021, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year. In terms of sub categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online retail sales of kitchen appliances, dishwashers and integrated stoves in February 2022 increased by 39.5%, 22.7% and 175.3% year-on-year respectively, and the online sales of kitchen appliances, cleaning appliances and floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) decreased by 8.5%, 13.0% and 13.8% year-on-year respectively. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, in February 2022, the sales of key brands of integrated stoves turned to positive year-on-year growth, and the sales of key brands of kitchen appliances and cleaning appliances fluctuated year-on-year.
Export: in January, the sales of existing homes in the United States continued to decline year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of new construction fell. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in January 2022, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 2% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; In January 2022, the number of new construction projects increased by 1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in December 2021, the export volume of furniture industry turned to negative year-on-year growth, and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained positive year-on-year growth, with year-on-year growth rates of – 4% and 18% respectively. According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric ovens, toasters, electric frying pans and other categories increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports of range hoods and other categories decreased.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and export continued to grow rapidly in the post real estate cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading customized home furnishings Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) ( Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ( Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Unrated), leading software furniture Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Unrated); Benefiting from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, which have benefited from the high growth in emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances. It is suggested to focus on China’s sweeping the floor Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) \ \ Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) ( Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) , overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
