Key investment points
Market review: this week, the pharmaceutical biological index fell 2.07%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.15 percentage points, and the industry ranked fourth in terms of rise and fall. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 13.45%, 0.62 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, and the industry ranks 21st in terms of rise and fall. The valuation level (pe-ttm) of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 28.51 times, with a premium rate of 93% (+ 6.3pp) relative to all a shares, 46% (+ 5.3pp) relative to all A-Shares excluding banks, and 141% (+ 8.2pp) relative to CSI 300. In terms of pharmaceutical sub industry, the four sub industry sectors rose this week, and in vitro diagnosis was the sub industry with the largest increase, up about 4.6%. The sub industries of API and pharmaceutical circulation ranked second and third, with an increase of about 2.1% and 1% respectively. The sub industry with the largest increase since the beginning of the year is in vitro diagnosis, up about 2.1%.
The epidemic continues to disperse, and pay attention to the covid-19 antigen household self-test related industrial chain in the short term. On March 11, the official website of the National Health Commission announced the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), and decided to add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection. Covid-19 antigen products have many advantages, such as easy to use, reducing crowd aggregation, low cost and fast time. It is expected to become the mainstream of detection in Europe and America. At the same time, vid-19 can be used for rapid detection of the epidemic situation of residents in China, which can also be used for routine self-detection and self-detection in the future market. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the industrial chain related to covid-19 antigen household self-test, including antigen detection products, upstream raw materials, retail channels, etc.
In the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we should focus on looking for varieties of “through medical insurance” and “epidemic desensitization”. Medical insurance pressure will become the norm in the future. On the one hand, we believe that leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc. are expected to cross the “medical insurance border” through “continuous innovation + internationalization”; On the other hand, medical insurance immunization is still a better choice. For the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as self funded biological drugs, traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, medical beauty upstream products, etc; The tob end at the upstream of the industrial chain is relatively immune to policies, such as the CXO section of the Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. The equipment section includes pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, etc., and the field of life science reagents and consumables. In the post epidemic era, we think we should focus on the field of “desensitization” of the epidemic, 1) vaccine varieties or vaccine oversold varieties that are not disturbed by covid-19; 2) When peg is less than 1, the undervalued value or low expected variety with upward long-term fundamental trend; 3) The varieties of medical services that were damaged by the previous epidemic and recovered in demand in the future. In addition, with the gradual mitigation and normalization of the epidemic prevention and control measures, the demand for relevant substances that previously benefited from the epidemic (such as gloves, masks, covid-19 detection reagent, covid-19 vaccine, etc.) has fallen, and the performance still needs some time to digest and observe. There are still key directions in these fields in the next 2-3 years.
Recommended combinations this week: Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ), Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) ( Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) ), Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) ( Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) ), Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) ( Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) ), China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) ( China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) ), Truking Technology Limited(300358) ( Truking Technology Limited(300358) ), Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) ( Shanghai General Healthy Information And Technology Co.Ltd(605186) ).
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure
