Investment strategy: the profit per ton of steel calculated by spot price has dropped significantly recently, which may reflect the market's concern about the relaxation of production restriction in the later stage. The winter Paralympic Games and heating season are coming to an end in mid March. Under the background of steady growth, there is a possibility of loosening the production restriction policy. The huge profits of steel last year were mainly driven by the production restriction. If the production is unlimited, the current demand level may put great pressure on the profit per ton of steel. In terms of demand, apparent demand continues to rise seasonally month on month, with a year-on-year growth rate of about - 6%, which is barely in line with expectations. However, it should be noted that the sentiment of the steel market is relatively active in the near future. Last week's table demand may include a certain downstream replenishment demand, and we still need to continue to pay attention to the changes of table demand in the future. At present, the medium and short-term real estate demand is still not optimistic, the recovery of infrastructure remains to be verified, and the growth of manufacturing industry may be limited under the condition of high base. Pay attention to the risk that the demand in peak season is lower than expected. With the steel price still at a high level, steel stocks fell sharply and lost the market this week, which may be related to the decline in the profit per ton of steel in the past two weeks. The first quarter report of steel enterprises is expected to rise month on month compared with the fourth quarter. On the one hand, the base in the fourth quarter of last year is very low, on the other hand, there are factors of inventory appreciation in the first quarter; However, due to the possible relaxation of production restriction in the second quarter and the high base in the second quarter of last year, the second quarterly report of steel enterprises may fall significantly year-on-year.
One week market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.22%, and the Shenwan steel sector fell 6.13%. This week, the main contract of rebar closed at 4917 yuan / ton, an increase of 16 yuan / ton over the previous week, with a range of 0.33%. The main contract of hot rolled coil closed at 5137 yuan / ton, a decrease of 73 yuan / ton over the previous week, with a range of 1.4%; The main iron ore contract closed at 822 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.5 yuan / ton or 1.17% over last week.
Steel turnover increased slightly month on month: the weekly average of national construction steel turnover this week was 178400 tons, an increase of 3700 tons compared with that before last week. The social inventory of the five varieties was 17.576 million tons, down 270000 tons month on month. The trading volume of downstream building materials increased slightly month on month compared with last week, which was the same as that of the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the social Treasury and factory warehouse decreased slightly this week, and the apparent demand increased slightly again. It is expected that the market will enter the stock removal stage as the steel plant speeds up the resumption of production.
The operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased month on month: the blast furnace operating rates of 247 Mysteel steel enterprises and Tangshan Steel Plant were 70.85% and 34.92% respectively this week, with a month on month comparison of -3.87pct and -11.91pct last week; This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rates of 247 Mysteel steel enterprises and Tangshan Steel Plant were 79.78% and 57.32% respectively, with a month on month comparison of -1.71ct and -5.87pct last week. The operating rate of 85 home appliance arc furnaces this week was 71.33%, with a month on week increase of + 2.22pct; The capacity utilization rate of 85 home appliance arc furnace was 67.07%, with a month on week increase of + 3.73pct. In terms of supply, affected by the "two sessions", the steel mills in Tangshan and Shanxi have received the notice of production restriction, which is expected to last for a short period, and the subsequent operating rate and capacity utilization rate will still increase. Under the background of "steady growth", there is still room for steel output increment in the first half of the year.
The steel price was flat on a month on month basis last week: the myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased by 0.03% on a month on month basis last week, including an increase of 0.14% for long materials and a decrease of 0.23% for sectors. Shanghai deformed steel bar was 4960 yuan / ton, an increase of 40 yuan on a weekly basis, with a range of 0.81%. Shanghai hot rolled coil 5120 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton from last week, an increase of 0.78%. The sharp rise in raw materials has promoted the recent rise in steel prices; At present, the downstream demand is in general, coupled with the loose expectation of production restriction, the processing fee per ton of steel has dropped.
Ore prices rose again, and coke scrap increased significantly: platts62%156.35 US dollars / ton this week, an increase of 3.95 US dollars / ton on a week-on-week basis. Last week, the shipment volume of Australia and Brazil was 200741 million tons, a month on month decrease of 57000 tons, and the arrival volume was 9.425 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons. The latest steel mill imported ore inventory days are 31 days, an increase of 2 days compared with the last time. Tianjin Zhunyi metallurgical coke was 3410 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with last week. Scrap steel is 3220 yuan / ton, an increase of 70 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of metallurgical coke in various regions is relatively strong, and the demand will recover after a year to stimulate the price of metallurgical coke. At present, coke enterprises are in the stage of destocking, and the coke price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term; The scrap price has been greatly increased this week due to the short-term impact of the sharp rise in international scrap prices and the implementation of China's scrap fiscal and tax policies. Whether the actual long-term sustainability remains to be seen.
The profit per ton of steel fell sharply again: the price of raw materials increased sharply this week, and the profit of mainstream steel fell sharply. According to our simulated steel data, the ore price and coke price at the end of raw materials increased significantly during the week, and the billet cost increased by nearly 260 yuan / ton. Although the price of finished products per ton of steel was basically the same as that of last week, the profit level per ton of steel decreased significantly, resulting in negative gross profit. Among them, the gross profit of hot rolled coil (3mm) is reduced by 169 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 3.95%; The gross profit of cold rolled sheet (1.0mm) is reduced by 171 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to - 1.66%; The gross profit of deformed steel bar (20mm) is reduced by 163 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 3.48%; The gross profit of medium and heavy sector (20mm) is reduced by 174 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 0.17%.
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
