This week’s view:
The first batch of five covid-19 antigen self-test kits were approved, and continued to pay attention to the two main opportunities under the repeated epidemic situation. This week, the CSI 300 fell 4.22%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell 2.07%, ranking fifth in 28 primary sub industries. Recently, sporadic outbreaks occurred in Hong Kong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jilin, Shanghai and other places in China in a short time. According to the official website of the National Health Commission, on March 12, 1807 local confirmed cases were added to the mainland (including 1412 in Jilin, 175 in Shandong, 62 in Guangdong, 39 in Shaanxi, 33 in Hebei and 86 in other provinces and cities), 1315 new cases of asymptomatic infection in China (including 744 cases in Jilin, 194 cases in Guangdong, 172 cases in Shandong, 64 cases in Shanghai, 40 cases in Hebei, 36 cases in Gansu and 65 cases in other provinces and cities), and 3719 cases in Hong Kong; As of March 12, 7230 cases have been confirmed in the mainland and 224012 cases in Hong Kong. The epidemic situation is serious.
In order to further optimize the covid-19 virus detection strategy, on March 11, the National Medical Administration issued the notice on printing and distributing the covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial), proposing to add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection, The application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial): 1) product positioning: antigen detection is a supplement to nucleic acid detection and cannot be used as the basis for the diagnosis of covid-19 virus infection; 2) Coverage population: antigen detection is mainly applicable to the population with respiratory tract, fever and other symptoms within 5 days after seeing a doctor in grass-roots medical institutions, isolated observation population and community residents with antigen self-detection needs; 3) Frequency of use: if the suspected population in grass-roots diagnosis and treatment does not have the ability of nucleic acid detection, antigen detection should be carried out, and the negative patients need to carry out antigen detection once a day for 5 consecutive days; Isolation and observation personnel (including home isolation, close contact, entry isolation and sealing area) shall conduct antigen self-test once a day in the first five days; If community residents have symptoms and are inconvenient to see a doctor, they should be tested for antigen for 5 consecutive days; 4) Procurement channel: the antigen detection reagents provided by grass-roots medical and health institutions are included in the centralized bidding procurement, and the reagent price can be reduced through provincial centralized bidding and procurement; The relevant administrative departments (communities, isolation points, etc.) shall be responsible for the procurement of reagents for isolation observers; Community residents can purchase antigen detection reagents through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels. On March 12, the State Food and Drug Administration issued a notice approving the change of self-test application of covid-19 antigen products from five companies in Nanjing Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Beijing jinwofu, Shenzhen Huada Yinyuan, Guangzhou Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , and Beijing huaketai biology. In our special report “covid-19 epidemic continues to repeat, and antigen self-test is expected to usher in an investment outlet” released on March 7, we pointed out that referring to the distribution policy of overseas covid-19 antigen self-test kits, it is expected that the monthly scale of China’s covid-19 antigen self-test kit market is expected to reach 17.7-26.6 billion yuan. Considering the persistence and repetition of the epidemic, and the need for subsequent national door opening, it’s recommended to continue to focus on investment opportunities in the industry chain related to coved-19, considering the need for covid19-19 and the need for follow-up countries to open their doors, considering the persistence and repetition of the epidemic, and the need to continue to focus on investment opportunities, focusing on two mainlines: 1) detection, such as Shenzhen V&T Technologies Co.Ltd(300484) 82 , an Xu biology and other IVD detection targets, as well as relevant reagents Cursor on consumables, such as Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , etc; In addition, considering the increased demand for self inspection, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) and other retail pharmacies are expected to continue to benefit; 2) Oral drugs: the United States has two small molecule oral drugs: EUA Pfizer (paxlovid) and molnupiravir; Chinese real biological azvudine phase III clinic, a variety of small molecule drugs in early clinical stage are under research, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116 has been approved overseas, and Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) American phase I clinic is in progress. Focusing on the Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises, the Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises, the cdmo industry chain for new drugs created by big overseas drug companies, and the generic industry chain and the generic industry chain that focus on the Chinese R & D and innovation companies, the Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises, the big overseas drug companies, the cdmo industry chain for new drugs and the Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises, the big overseas drug companies, the cdmo industry chain for new drug cdmo industry chain and the generic industry chain, such as Beijing Abt Networks Co.Ltd(688168) 81 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , etc.
The epidemic situation is repeated, and the immunization is strengthened in sequence. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the vaccine sector. Recently, sporadic outbreaks have occurred in Hong Kong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jilin, Shanghai and other places in China in a short time, and vaccines are still an important means of epidemic prevention and control. In addition, the National Health Commission has begun to deploy sequential immunization. Considering the increasingly obvious influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) -u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) etc. In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to go on the market. With the increase of vaccination awareness under the covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The class II vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% – 30% in recent 3-5 years. It is recommended that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) , etc.
To highlight the performance of a single stock: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: tofocus on the following: ‘ Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) \ , Cinda biology, Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) ; The average decline this week was 4.11%, underperforming the pharmaceutical industry by 2.04%.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 13.4%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 12.8%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is 0.6% lower than that of CSI 300. This week, the CSI 300 fell by 4.22%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 2.07%, ranking fifth in 28 primary sub industries. All sub sectors fell, with the largest decline in medical services, which was 3.35%, and the smallest decline in pharmaceutical business, which was 0.07%. Based on the 2022 profit forecast valuation, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 27.71 times PE, the P / E ratio of all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is about 21.18 times PE, and the premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 30.87%. Based on the TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 28.5 times PE, which is lower than the historical average (37.2 times PE), and the premium rate relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 37%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
