[core view of this week] although the stocks related to steady growth have been adjusted this week, the construction sector still has obvious excess returns. At present, it continues to be optimistic about the main line of steady growth. We believe that the government work report has set the tone for this year’s GDP 5 With a medium to high growth target of 5%, the investment contribution rate is expected to increase significantly. However, the incremental slowdown of social finance data in February and the deterioration of the structure show that the current policy effect is not obvious, and the follow-up infrastructure and real estate policies can be expected to continue to increase. At the same time, there will probably be no tightening policies this year, and the steady growth market is expected to continue. Continue to focus on recommendations: undervalued construction central enterprises China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (March gold stock, pe4.0x), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (pe6.2x), China Railway Group Limited(601390) (pe4.6x), high growth local state-owned enterprises Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) (pe4.7x), Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) (pe7.8x). This week, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on the development plan of building energy efficiency and green buildings in the 14th five year plan. The green development of the construction industry ushered in a programmatic document. The subdivided fields such as prefabricated buildings, photovoltaic buildings (BIPV / bapv), green energy-saving transformation and green building materials are expected to usher in accelerated development, and the relevant leaders are expected to benefit. Key recommendations: 1) steel structure leaders Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (pe10.5x), Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) (pe17.7x) benefiting from the rapid development of photovoltaic buildings and assembly, pay attention to Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) . 2) Microgrid leader Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) (pe24x) and distribution network EPCO leader Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) (pe23x) benefiting from the growth of demand for photovoltaic buildings, distribution network construction and building electrification projects. 3) Heating energy saving transformation leader Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) (pe18x).
The policy overweight is expected to continue to be optimistic about the main line of stable growth. Although the steady growth related stocks have been adjusted this week, it is expected that the overall performance of the market is weak, but the construction sector still has obvious excess return. The sector fell 2.54% this week, compared with 1.68% of the excess return of CSI 300. We continue to be optimistic about the main line of steady growth. First, the government work conference has set the tone of gdp5 The medium and high growth target of 5%. Considering the repeated impact of the epidemic on consumption and the uncertainty of export, the contribution rate of investment is expected to be significantly improved. Due to the slowdown of manufacturing investment this year, infrastructure investment, as the main tool of government regulation, is expected to exert significant force, and the deviation of real estate policy is expected to continue to be corrected. At present, although some policies have been issued in infrastructure and real estate related fields, from the data of transportation investment and Social Finance (transportation investment increased by only 0.1% in January, and the total amount and structure of social finance in February were lower than expected), the policy effect in the first quarter is still not obvious, and the follow-up steady growth policy can be expected to continue to increase. From the point of view of the introduction of “loose policies” in the whole year, it is expected that the economic growth rate will continue to stabilize. Secondly, it is expected that the financial policies of all parties will continue to be tightened after the introduction of “loose policies” in the whole year, which is likely to be conducive to the end of the year, and the economic growth rate will not be stabilized. Secondly, it is expected that the financial policies of all parties will continue to be tightened for five times, which will be conducive to the recovery of economic growth.
The overall performance of central enterprises is in line with the expectations of central enterprises, and the overall performance of central enterprises is outstanding. This week, some central enterprises announced the data of newly signed orders. From January to February, China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) newly signed orders reached 76.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 87.5% year-on-year Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) newly signed orders amounted to 208.6 billion yuan, up 14.6% year-on-year, 8.2 PCT faster than that in January Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) newly signed orders amounted to 121.2 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) newly signed orders reached 445.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Orders in February fell by 9.8%, of which real estate construction decreased by 2%. Under the current situation of the real estate industry, there was only a slight decline, showing the resilience of leading business. It is expected that orders for public construction and manufacturing industries will grow better; New infrastructure contracts decreased by 27%, mainly due to the high base last year. On the whole, from January to February, the total number of new orders signed by the four central construction enterprises increased by 12.2% year-on-year. In the environment of high base and the current downturn of the real estate industry, they still maintained good toughness, and some enterprises performed prominently, which was in line with expectations as a whole.
In February, social finance weakened, residents’ medium and long-term loans decreased for the first time, and the growth of infrastructure funds slowed down. In February, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 432.9 billion yuan, lower than market expectations. The main drag items were loans and unaccepted bills, of which loans to the real economy increased by 908.4 billion yuan to 432.9 billion yuan year-on-year, unaccepted bills decreased by 422.8 billion yuan and decreased by 486.7 billion yuan year-on-year. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 130 billion yuan. The medium and long-term loans of residents decreased net for the first time since the data were available. In February, they decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion yuan, indicating that the demand for house purchase of residents continued to be under pressure; The medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 505.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 594.8 billion yuan, and the financing demand of enterprises also weakened significantly. According to the calculation framework of social financing funds for infrastructure construction built by us, the investment of social financing in infrastructure construction in February was about 531.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was significantly slower than the growth rate of 28% in January. In February, the credit social finance was significantly weakened and the structure deteriorated, mainly due to the weak demand at the real estate end and the infrastructure policy has not yet been effective. It is expected that the follow-up real estate and infrastructure policy will continue to increase, and the possibility of the central bank reducing reserve requirements and interest rates again will increase.
The plan for building energy conservation and green building was issued, and the steel structure leader benefiting from the development of photovoltaic buildings and fabricated buildings was recommended. This week, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on building energy conservation and green building development planning in the 14th five year plan, which aims to lay the foundation for reaching the peak of carbon in urban and rural construction by 2030, specifically from improving the development quality of green buildings, improving the energy-saving level of new buildings, strengthening the energy-saving green transformation of existing buildings, promoting the application of renewable energy, and implementing building electrification projects, Promote new green construction methods and promote the popularization and application of green building materials. The specific goal is to complete more than 350 million square meters of energy-saving transformation of existing buildings, more than 50 million square meters of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings, and 30% of new urban buildings in that year, The installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings nationwide is more than 50 million KW, the building application area of geothermal energy is more than 100 million square meters, the replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings is 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption is more than 55%. The green development of the construction industry has ushered in a programmatic document. The subdivided fields such as prefabricated buildings, photovoltaic buildings (BIPV / bapv), green energy-saving transformation and green building materials are expected to accelerate their development, and the relevant leaders are expected to benefit. Key recommendations: 1) steel structure leaders Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (pe10.5x), Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) (pe17.7x) benefiting from the rapid development of photovoltaic buildings and assembly, pay attention to Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) . 2) Microgrid leader Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) (pe24x) and distribution network EPCO leader Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) (pe23x) benefiting from the growth of demand for photovoltaic buildings, distribution network construction and building electrification projects. 3) Heating energy saving transformation leader Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) (pe18x).
Investment suggestion: in February, the increment of social finance data slowed down and the structure deteriorated, indicating that the current policy effect is not obvious, and the follow-up infrastructure and real estate policies can be expected to continue to increase. At the same time, there will probably be no tightening policies this year, and the steady growth market is expected to continue. Continue to highlight: central enterprises of undervalued construction China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , local state-owned enterprises with high growth Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) . The green development of the construction industry has ushered in a programmatic document. The subdivided fields such as prefabricated buildings, photovoltaic buildings (BIPV / bapv), green energy-saving transformation and green building materials are expected to accelerate their development, and the relevant leaders are expected to benefit. Key recommendations: 1) steel structure leaders Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , benefiting from the rapid development of photovoltaic building and assembly, pay attention to Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) . 2) The leader of microgrid Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , the leader of distribution network EPCO Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) , benefiting from the growing demand for photovoltaic buildings, distribution network construction and building electrification projects. 3) Heating energy saving transformation leader Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) .
Risk tips: the risk of policy promotion is less than expected, the risk of epidemic impact is more than expected, the risk of accounts receivable, overseas business risk, etc.
