Market review: affected by the Russian Ukrainian incident, some overseas enterprises shut down factories, the global supply chain is tight, and the automobile sector continues to adjust this week. This week (3.7-3.11), the overall SW automobile sector was – 4.75%, ranking 19 / 31. SW passenger cars – 4.20%, SW commercial vehicles – 5.99%, SW auto parts – 5.16%, SW Auto Services – 3.73%, SW motorcycles and others – 1.82%. From the perspective of valuation level, the overall PE of SW auto sector was callback to 35.0 times, which was 59.4% of the past five years, and the PE of SW auto parts sub sector was callback to 34.7 times, which was 40.1% of the past five years. Recent situation of the industry: in February 2022, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, China’s retail sales of narrow passenger cars were 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month on month decrease of 40.0%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 22.8% lower than that of the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 2.85%. From March 1 to 6, China retailed 223000 passenger cars, down 13% year-on-year and 49% month on month. Steel, aluminum, copper and other raw materials and freight prices are still high.
The impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine still needs attention, and car prices rise to deal with cost pressure. Since the beginning of 2022, the prices of power batteries, bulk materials and other raw materials have continued to rise, the supply of superimposed chips is insufficient, and the operation pressure of vehicle enterprises is great. In order to cope with the rising cost, the prices of many new energy vehicles have increased one after another, ranging from thousands of yuan to tens of thousands of yuan. Affected by the Russian Ukrainian incident, some car companies and Tier1 suppliers have successively shut down their factories. International OEMs and suppliers have more business in Europe, and the impact is greater than that of Chinese enterprises. The short-term impact is reflected in the intensification of core shortage and the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices. The two sessions set the tone for steady growth, emphasized supply chain guarantee, continued to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the support of macroeconomic policies will help to restore the industrial chain.
Investment suggestion: electrification and intellectualization of automobiles are still the general trend of the industry. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to three main lines: electrification & lightweight: the boom of new energy demand is determined, and the penetration rate continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , etc; Intellectualization: intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are accelerated, and the intelligent configuration of new cars is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Improvement of core shortage: traditional automobile enterprises are greatly impacted by core shortage. With the improvement of supply, enterprise operation is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely motor.
Risk tip: the industry’s terminal sales are less than expected, the manufacturer’s R & D or new car release progress is less than expected, the upstream raw material supply is insufficient or the price rise leads to the decline of industry profits, etc.
