The demand for photovoltaic glass has not improved significantly, which is driven by events in the short term
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 20 and 26 yuan / m2 respectively, unchanged month on month. The manufacturer's inventory days were 22.40 days, an increase of 5.00% over last week. Recently, the price of fuel at the raw material end has increased, and the soda ash market has decreased slightly, but it is still running at a high level. The supply of silicon material is tight, the price remains high, and the pressure on the component end is obvious. Therefore, the installation and start-up of the terminal power station is not as expected. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve in 22 / 23 years. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 43610 tons, unchanged month on month. The production plan of photovoltaic glass in 22 years is large, but the promotion is general. Under the current price, we think the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. This week's event in the photovoltaic industry is mainly catalyzed by the increase in the installed capacity expectation of the European Photovoltaic Association. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the EU in 2030 is 420gw. If the demand accelerates to improve later, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
The price of float glass is lowered as a whole, and the demand for 22q2 is expected to reach a small peak
The average price of float glass in China this week decreased by 1.81% month on month compared with last week. The downstream processing plants have not returned to normal operation, and the demand is gradually recovering. The manufacturer's inventory was 50.72 million weight boxes, an increase of 4 million weight boxes compared with last week. The production capacity in the week was 173125t / D, with a month on month decrease of 800t / d. This week, the cost side fuel price continued to rise, the price of the original film was under pressure due to the weak demand, and the profit of float glass continued to shrink. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and it is expected to usher in a small peak of completion in the first half of this year. Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity side has high growth. It is recommended to recommend [Xinyi solar energy] (joint coverage with Dianxin), [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (joint coverage with Dianxin), and from the perspective of dilemma reversal [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The stock price of the float leader has been significantly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of its float business under the equilibrium state and the additional growth brought by the new business, we believe that the current float leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original film breaks through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (jointly covered with the electronic group). Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, recommend the head enterprise of CBSI medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (jointly covered with the medical group).
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed the downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and other products beyond expectations; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
