Key investment points
Since the beginning of the year, the sector has slightly led the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index fell by – 4.29%, the gem index fell by – 3.03%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by – 4.22%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell by – 4.00%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lagged the market by – 0.30 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2022, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index has fallen by – 8.59%, the gem index by – 19.78%, the CSI 300 index by – 12.83%, the Shanghai Composite Index by – 9.07%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector is 0.48 percentage points ahead of the market.
Event: this week (March 11), the international oil price fell from a high shock. Among them, the price of WTI crude oil fell 5.49% to US $109.33/barrel, Brent crude oil fell 4.61% to US $112.67/barrel, the oil distribution price exceeded US $140 during the week, and the international oil price fell for the first time since the geopolitical incident in Russia and Ukraine this week.
OPEC is concerned about the continuous supply interruption between Russia and Ukraine. Russia Ukraine negotiations failed: Ukrainian foreign minister kuleba held a fruitless meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Turkey on Thursday for about 90 minutes. Recently, Russia’s main export crude oil, Ural crude oil, continued to decline in the spot Brent discount, and European and American countries took financial measures and asset freeze, including BP, Statoil, shell Several international energy giants, including ExxonMobil, announced that they would withdraw from project investment in Russia. Total energy also said that it would no longer provide funds for the development of new projects in Russia, and the market’s concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply continued to escalate. Focus on OPEC + production increase plan: the UAE ambassador to the United States said in a statement on Wednesday that “We support production increase and will encourage OPEC to consider increasing production”. But earlier, the Iraqi oil minister still insisted that the recent surge in Brent oil prices was mainly driven by the geopolitical situation, not a real shortage of supply. We need to pay attention to the OPEC + meeting held on March 31. IEA may release more crude oil reserves: on the 1st of this month, members of the International Energy Agency decided to jointly release 60 million barrels of crude oil reserves, including 30 million barrels of crude oil promised by the United States (60 million barrels of crude oil reserves are equivalent to Russia’s 6-day crude oil production or 12-day crude oil export). The director of the International Energy Agency said on the 9th that the previously released 60 million barrels accounted for only 4% of the inventory, More will be released if necessary. Decline in net long positions: according to the data of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week of March 8, the net long positions of Brent and WTI crude oil held by speculators decreased by 89493 contracts to 442087 contracts, a new low in the last 11 weeks. The profit positions accumulated by continuous sharp increases showed signs of closing positions. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to decline: according to the latest EIA data, as of the week of March 4, crude oil inventories fell by 1.863 million barrels to 411.6 million barrels, and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil inventories fell to 577.5 million barrels, the lowest level since July 2002. We believe that the supply side disturbance under the current extremely low inventory will make the elasticity of oil prices more obvious, and the oil price may remain high and volatile until the geopolitical factors are alleviated. In addition, we need to pay attention to the possibility of Iranian crude oil returning to the market and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, or bring some pressure on oil prices in the medium term.
Investment suggestion: the crude oil price has reached a new high, the global capital expenditure has recovered, and the oil service industry has fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) ; Due to the disturbance of geopolitical factors, the vulnerability of the global oil and gas supply chain appears. It is suggested to pay attention to the cursor of oil and gas: CNOOC, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) ; The oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the coal and gas head route highlights the cost advantage: Satellite chemistry, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) .
Product prices are mixed: the products with the highest price increases include acetic anhydride (17.16%), sulfuric acid (98%) (15.79%), butadiene (15.73%), ethyl acetate (13.86%), sulfur (solid sulfur) (yuan / ton) (13.30%). The products with the highest price decline include: glufosinate (- 20.59%), azoxystrobin (- 12.12%), methylcyclosiloxane (DMC) (- 10.13%), diuron (- 9.43%), R134a (- 7.69%).
Leading enterprises expand their advantages, while the valuation is obviously low, or realize through the cycle. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives in the business cycle Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) . New materials: scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is suggested to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
