Key investment points:
Zhou’s view: the social finance data in February was lower than expected, and the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased for the first time. Under the current background of steady growth, the market further relaxed its expectations for follow-up policies and currency. We believe that the re mention of real estate in the “two sessions” is due to the implementation of urban policies, which coincides with the substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places recently. It is expected that more cities will introduce stimulating real estate policies, the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom quickly and stabilize, and the whole year is expected to show a trend from low to high. At present, there are many overall adjustments in the building materials sector. As the real estate end is expected to hit the bottom, the industry will usher in a new allocation time point, and the leader of consumer building materials is preferred; Secondly, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development. By 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and nearly zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, and the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, The newly added buildings Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) with an installed photovoltaic capacity of more than 50 million KW will bring new demand to energy-saving materials such as Low-E and photovoltaic glass, and pay attention to theme investment opportunities.
Consumption of building materials: due to the marginal relaxation of urban policies, the inflection point of the real estate industry is gradually approaching. The “two sessions” re mentioned that real estate should be based on urban policies, which coincides with the substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places recently, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize quickly; The negative credit impairment of consumer building materials worried by the market in the early stage will also be gradually implemented with the disclosure of the annual report. The trend of increasing the concentration of consumer building materials leaders is determined, and the growth is still stable. The rise of short-term raw materials has brought some pressure to the gross profit margin, which provides a new allocation opportunity after the recent adjustment. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); Secondly, there are pipe faucets ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , China Liansu) with excellent business quality, small ceramic tile faucets ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ), and gypsum boards ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: the demand in the South recovered rapidly, and the price of cement began to rise. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand in the south, the clinker along the Yangtze River Delta increased by 4 rounds, with a cumulative price increase of 110 yuan / ton, and the shipping price reached 470480 yuan / ton. Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai took the lead in raising the price of cement. In the first quarter, all localities moderately advanced infrastructure investment and solidly promoted the implementation of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. In the early stage, the Ministry of finance has issued to all localities in advance the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion in 2022, and the annual special debt is expected to be 3.65 trillion. At the same time, the fiscal expenditure increased by 2 trillion year-on-year, with financial support; At the same time, investment in key infrastructure projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong and other places has gradually landed. In the middle and late March, demand is expected to further recover. The high growth expectation of infrastructure investment in the first quarter is expected to increase. Under the background of steady growth, the cement sector with undervalued value and high profit is expected to usher in a restless market in spring. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the manufacturer’s inventory continues to rise. We believe that in the early stage, due to the influence of rainy weather, tight capital chain and repeated epidemic, the demand for housing construction projects in the lower reaches recovered slowly, while the demand in the northern region has not yet recovered. Most processing plants in North China officially resumed work after March 15, the overall demand has not fully recovered, manufacturers continue to accumulate inventory and prices have fallen slightly, It is expected that the demand will be further restored in mid and late March, waiting for a new round of replenishment in the downstream after the demand is restored. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; Recently, the real estate policies of local governments have continued to relax. Due to the effect of urban policies, the real estate may gradually appear. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release, which is optimistic about a new round of volume and price rise of glass in the future. At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , CSG A and Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: the price of electronic yarn is weak, and the price of roving remains high and stable. During the week, Jushi announced its operation from January to February, and its total profit increased by more than 60% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. At present, the inventory of roving industry continues to run at a low level, the price remains stable at a high level, and the profitability of enterprises is good; The price of electronic yarn continues to decline. The mainstream price of electronic yarn G75 is about 10000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of electronic cloth is about 3.7 yuan / meter. The electronic yarn is weak. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; Recently, the wind power installed capacity in some regions is planned to increase rapidly, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and wind power yarn, and the demand for high-end products in 2022 may be in full force; According to the tracked industrial production expansion plan, in 2022, the new supply is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry may continue or far exceed expectations. At the same time, the leading enterprises have capacity expansion, and the continuous high price operation brings high performance elasticity (it is recommended to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
