Matters:
On March 11, the covid-19 epidemic prevention and control group of the State Council issued the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial) (hereinafter referred to as the scheme), which officially incorporated antigen detection into covid-19 prevention and control measures.
Ping An View:
The release of antigen detection was earlier than expected and complied with the development stage of the epidemic:
Referring to the situation of overseas epidemic prevention and control, it is not surprising that China will release covid-19 antigen detection, but it is generally speculated in the industry that the country will release the detection after more evidence proves that the mortality of new virus variants is low and more covid-19 antigen detection products are on the market. The release time of the plan was earlier than the market expectation.
Antigen detection has the characteristics of fast speed, simple operation and slightly lower accuracy than nucleic acid. On the premise that nucleic acid detection is still the gold standard for diagnosis, a fast and simple screening procedure is pre arranged. Combined with the recent development of epidemic situation in China, the epidemic of Omicron makes epidemic prevention more difficult. The epidemic occurred in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Shanghai and other places, and spread widely and lasted for a long time. At this time, the release of covid-19 antigen detection can reduce the pressure of nucleic acid detection and comply with the development and changes of the epidemic situation.
Referring to the European and American markets, it is estimated that the demand in China is mainly for grass-roots hospitals and observation and isolation personnel:
Common application scenarios of antigen detection products in European and American countries include covid-19 detection at community checkpoints and self-test at home for people with physical discomfort. However, due to the differences in epidemic prevention measures and government procurement between Europe and the United States, the current demand for antigen testing is cold in Europe and hot in the United States.
According to the plan, the Chinese antigen test is applicable to three groups of people: (1) those who have symptoms such as respiratory tract and fever in primary medical institutions and have symptoms within 5 days; (2) Observation and isolation personnel, including personnel in home isolation observation, close connection and secondary close connection, entry isolation observation, sealing and control area; (3) Community residents with self-test needs. We believe that antigen detection has improved the accessibility of detection to a certain extent. It is expected that grass-roots hospitals and observation and isolation personnel will become the main users of antigen detection products. For community residents with self-test needs, the plan clearly stipulates that they can purchase by themselves through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels, and their actual purchase intention is estimated to have a great correlation with the subsequent development of the epidemic.
Registration certificate and supply capacity are barriers. Enterprises that have obtained Chinese and overseas registration certificates have advantages:
The technical barrier of antigen detection products is not high. In the short term, the entry barrier is mainly composed of registration certificate and supply capacity. Among them, the supply capacity includes the capacity of end products and the supply chain control capacity of production raw materials (because core raw materials such as NC membrane are scarce during the epidemic).
At present, the enterprises whose relevant products have obtained the Chinese registration certificate include Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , jinwofu biology, Huada Yinyuan, huaketai and Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , and the above products obtained the self-test application change application on March 12. Enterprises that have obtained overseas registration certificates (including FDA, CE, etc, and so on, including the FDA, and so on) for overseas registration certificates (including FDA, and CE, etc). Enterprises that have obtained overseas registration certificates (including FDA, and so so so so so so so that the companies that have obtained overseas registration certificates (including FDA, and so so so so so that include the FDA, and so so on, including the FDA, and so on, among the ones that include the companies that have obtained overseas registration certificates (including FDA, and so so on, and so so on). Enterprises that have obtained overseas registration certificates (including the FDA, and so so so so that the companies that have obtained overseas registration certificates (including the FDA, and so so so so that the companies that are among those that include the companies that have obtained overseas registration certificates (including the FDA, and so so so so so so so so that many many of those that are the companies that include the companies that include the companies that have included the overseas registration certificates to get their overseas registration certificates (including the FDA, and CE, and CE, and so so so so so so on, etc Getein Biotech Inc(603387) , Lepu diagnosis, Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , etc. Initially, some enterprises that have formed formal sales overseas also have good certainty in terms of supply capacity.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to diagnostic enterprises whose related products have been listed in China or abroad. Although there is still a certain degree of uncertainty about the penetration rate of covid-19 antigen products, the approval speed of follow-up registration certificates and the sales price, we believe that even if it is estimated conservatively, the liberalization of covid-19 antigen detection can bring great marginal changes to the performance of most relevant enterprises. \u1ae3\u1ae3\u1ae3\u1ae3ʰ\u1ae3DDDʰDDDDD\u1ae3DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD?DDD.
Risk tips:
1) policy risk: the epidemic prevention and control policy may change, resulting in the actual consumption or price of relevant products inconsistent with expectations; 2) Competitive risk: if relevant competitive products are listed and expanded faster than expected, it may increase competition and reduce profitability; 3) Market risk: cyclical market fluctuations may have a negative impact on the pharmaceutical industry.
