Market overview of this week:
Semiconductor market outperformed major indexes this week. This week, the Shenwan semiconductor industry index fell 2.31%, the gem index fell 3.03%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.00%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 4.40%, the small and medium-sized board index fell 4.64%, and wandequan a fell 3.96%. The semiconductor industry index outperformed the major indexes.
Most of the semiconductor segments have warmed up. Among the semiconductor segments, the semiconductor manufacturing segment rose 3.7% this week, the semiconductor equipment segment rose 3.5% this week, the semiconductor material segment rose 2.6% this week, the discrete device segment rose 1.1% this week, the IC Design segment rose 0.4% this week, the packaging and testing segment fell 0.8% this week, and other segments fell 2.1% this week.
We are optimistic about the trend of Intelligence & under the carbon neutral policy, the automotive industry will usher in a revaluation opportunity for value growth. The automotive chip will be revalued under the power of intelligence + electrification, which is expected to become a new driving force for the semiconductor industry. There is a continuous shortage of automotive chips, and the localization rate is less than 1%. We are optimistic about the accelerated development of China’s core automotive chip manufacturers under the opportunities of domestic substitution + industrial chain reconstruction + capacity transfer.
Driven by intelligence, the automotive industry is expected to realize industrial transformation and upgrading, and accelerate into a new era of interconnection of all things + Intelligent alliance of all things. At present, consumer electronics has stepped into the intelligent era step by step, while the automotive industry is facing the upgrading of intelligent industry. The overall process can be compared from functional machine to intelligent machine. With the promotion of carbon neutralization at the policy end, there are many waves of electrification, which is optimistic about the acceleration of new energy vehicles driven by intelligence and electrification.
Automotive intelligence + electrification drives the upgrading of the composition of the overall industrial value chain, and the content + importance of automotive chips has doubled. It is expected that the proportion of automotive semiconductors in the total cost of automobiles will reach 50% in 2030, which will become a new profit growth point of automobiles. According to our calculation, it is assumed that traditional vehicles need 500600 semiconductor chips / vehicle and new energy vehicles need 10002000 semiconductor chips / vehicle: Based on the sales volume of 72.76 million traditional vehicles and 3.24 million new energy vehicles in 2020, the demand for automobile chips is 43.9 billion per year. Based on the sales volume of 67.8 million traditional vehicles and 44.2 million new energy vehicles in 2026, the demand for automobile chips is 90.3 billion per year. Assuming that the semiconductor chips required by traditional vehicles are $397462 / vehicle and new energy vehicles are $786859 / vehicle: the value of global automotive chips in 2020 is $33.9 billion. It is estimated that the value will increase to US $65.5 billion in 2026, which is expected to double compared with 2020.
Automobile chips continue to be in short supply, and the “four modernizations” exacerbate the problem of automobile shortage. We believe that the main reasons for the shortage of automobile chips are the rapid recovery of the original automobile market demand in the post epidemic era, the continued higher than expected demand for new energy vehicles, and the rise of chip volume and price driven by the new four modernizations of automobiles. On the whole, 1) power semiconductor: it is expected to give priority to domestic substitution. MOS and IGBT will be difficult to alleviate this year, especially the shortage of 6-inch and 8-inch. 2) MCU: structural mitigation continues, especially in terms of vehicle specification MCU. 3) Sensor chips: with the increase of carrying quantity in the future, the shortage problem will exist for a long time. 4) The concentration of SOC chip high-performance products is high, and the risk of shortage continues to exist. 5) Memory chips: the proportion in the automotive semiconductor market is expected to continue to increase, and the shortage of goods leads to the rise of product prices.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
1) semiconductor design: Sg Micro Corp(300661) / 3Peak Incorporated(688536) / Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) / acousto-optic Department / Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) / Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) / Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) / Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) ./ Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) / Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) / Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) / Bestechnic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688608) / Shanghai Fullhan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300613) / Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) / Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) / Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) / Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) / Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) / Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(688385) / Shanghai Awinic Technology Co.Ltd(688798) ;
\u3000\u30002）IDM: Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) ；
3) wafer foundry: Huahong semiconductor / Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) ;
(4) semiconductor equipment materials: National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) of the material for the material of the semiconductor device: 6881materialfor the material of the semiconductor device: / Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ;
Risk tips: changes in industrial policies, intensified international trade disputes, and the development of downstream industries is less than expected
