In February, the total amount and structure of social finance credit were weak, and the underpinning policy is expected to strengthen
1. In terms of total amount: the growth rate of social finance has declined, and the overall credit is weak. In February, social finance increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 531.5 billion yuan; The growth rate of social finance was 10.2%, down 0.3pc from January, lower than market expectations, mainly because the real economy loans increased by only 908.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 432.9 billion yuan; Undiscounted bank bills decreased by 422.8 billion yuan, an increase of 486.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Corporate bonds and government bonds increased by 337.7 billion yuan and 272.2 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 202.1 billion yuan and 170.5 billion yuan respectively year-on-year.
2. Structurally: both residents and enterprises perform poorly. 1) Residents continue to be weak. In February, residents’ loans decreased by 336.9 billion, an increase of 479 billion year-on-year. Among them, short-term and medium and long-term loans decreased by 291.1 billion yuan and 45.9 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 22 billion yuan and 457.2 billion yuan respectively year-on-year; 2) The medium and long-term weakness of the enterprise end and the increase of bills. In February, corporate loans increased by 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 40 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly short-term loans and bill financing increased by 161.4 billion yuan and 490.7 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term corporate loans decreased by 594.8 billion yuan year-on-year. The negative growth of residential loans (short-term + medium and long-term) and the weak medium and long-term loans of enterprises this month, and the increase of bills, to some extent, reflects the current shortage of residents’ consumption and real estate mortgage, and there is still a certain pressure on the momentum of the real economy (and the epidemic situation has repeatedly increased uncertainty).
3. Our view: the expectation of policy easing is rising gradually, and the banking sector is waiting for policy signal stimulation in the shock. A. It is expected that the policy will underpin the economy and will be good for the sector. The weak performance of social finance and credit data in February is behind the pressure on the real economy and insufficient effective demand, but considering this year’s GDP 5.5% The target growth rate of 5% still reflects a strong determination to “stabilize growth”, and the market’s expectations for the strength of supporting policies have increased, such as interest rate reduction (especially the five-year LPR), marginal relaxation of real estate (boosting the demand side), promoting residents’ consumption, sustainable development of infrastructure, etc, For the banking sector, it will be positive (historically, when the economy stabilizes or is expected to stabilize and improve, banks can obtain better absolute and relative returns). B. The banking sector is waiting for policy signals to stimulate in the shock. At present, there are many factors affecting the market (pressure on China’s economy, concerns about overseas stagflation and uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine). Before there is no specific main line sector to attract capital inflows, the market is expected to fluctuate as a whole, while the banking sector is expected to continue to rise while waiting for policy signals.
Regular data tracking:
Equity market tracking: 1) trading volume: the average daily turnover of stocks this week was 1.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 118.5 billion yuan month on month. 2) Liangrong: the balance was 1.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.62% over last week. 3) Fund issuance: non monetary funds issued 18.889 billion shares this week, a decrease of 20.548 billion month on week. Since March, a total of 55.386 billion shares have been issued, a year-on-year decrease of 108802 billion. Among them, the stock type was 3.528 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 31.339 billion, and the hybrid type was 22.592 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 110733 billion. Interest rate market tracking: 1) interbank certificates of deposit: A. volume: according to wind data, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 0.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.27 trillion yuan compared with last week; Since March, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has been 0.95 trillion yuan, and the current balance of interbank certificates of deposit is 14.25 trillion yuan, a decrease of 171.7 billion yuan compared with the end of last month; B. Price: the issuing interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 2.54%, unchanged from last week; So far this month, the issue interest rate is 2.54%. 2) Bill interest rate: this week, the 3-month discount rate of bank notes of large state-owned banks + joint-stock banks was 1.83%, up 4bps from last week; Since March, the interest rate has been 1.97%, down 15bps from last month. The three-month bank note discount rate of urban commercial banks was 2.05%, up 6bps from last week. Since March, the interest rate has been 2.16%, down 15bps from last month. 3) Yield of 10-year Treasury bonds: the average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds this week was 2.82%, down 1bp from last week. 4) Issuance scale of local government special bonds: 90.04 billion new special bonds were issued this week, an increase of 2.018 billion over last week. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 1.09 trillion yuan has been issued, and the amount of local bonds approved in advance in 2022 is 1.46 trillion yuan.
Risk tip: the risks of real estate enterprises erupted intensively, the steady growth policy was less than expected, and the macro-economy went down; The promotion of capital market reform policy is less than expected; The sales of guaranteed products of insurance companies were lower than expected.
