This week we discuss the covid-19 antigen self-test market.
China has released covid-19 antigen self-test, which will be used as a supplementary means of nucleic acid detection
On March 11, the State Council issued a notice on the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial) issued by the comprehensive group of joint prevention and control mechanism in response to covid-19 virus pneumonia. The scheme specifies that in order to further optimize the covid-19 virus detection strategy and serve the needs of epidemic prevention and control, after research, The State Council should respond to the New Coronavirus pneumonia epidemic prevention and control mechanism integrated group, and based on the nucleic acid detection, increase the antigen detection as a supplement, and organize the formulation of the COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan (Trial Implementation).
The applicable groups for antigen detection are divided into three categories, including those who go to grass-roots medical and health institutions with respiratory tract, fever and other symptoms within 5 days; Isolation observation personnel, including personnel in home isolation observation, close connection and secondary close connection, entry isolation observation, sealing and control area; Community residents with antigen self-test needs.
Compared with nucleic acid detection and immunological detection, antigen detection has significant convenience advantages
At present, covid-19 detection is mainly divided into three methods: (1) nucleic acid detection based on molecular level; (2) Antibody detection based on Immunology; (3) Antigen detection based on immunology. Among them, nucleic acid detection is the gold standard, which is the main detection method used in China at present, but the development conditions are high and the detection time is long. Antibody detection time is short, but the detection window period is late. It is suitable for large-scale population screening and treatment rehabilitation evaluation. Antigen detection residents can collect samples of anterior nasal swab or nasopharyngeal swab by themselves according to the instructions of the product manual and use them in a home environment. Usually, the waiting time is about 15-20 minutes; There is no need to go to the hospital to use the product, and the links such as queuing, registration and waiting for inspection results can be omitted. It has significant advantages in convenience.
Antigen detection reagents will be included in centralized purchase and sold in retail pharmacies and online sales platforms
According to the plan, the antigen detection reagents provided by grass-roots medical and health institutions are included in the centralized bidding procurement, which can continuously reduce the price of detection reagents and reduce the burden of detection costs through provincial centralized bidding and procurement. In addition, the management department organizing isolation observation (such as communities, villages and towns, isolation points, etc.) is responsible for the procurement, distribution and management of antigen detection reagents. Community residents who need self-test can purchase antigen test reagents for self-test through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels.
Five self-test products were officially launched, and the market scale reached 10 billion in a single month
On March 12, the government affairs service portal of the State Drug Administration showed that Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) (colloidal gold method), jinwofu (latex method), huadayin (fluorescence immunochromatography), Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) (colloidal gold method) Huaketai (fluorescence immunochromatography) passed the application for change of registration information (from being limited to professional technicians, to being used for home self-test and other scenes), and the first batch of covid-19 antigen self-test kit products were officially launched. Germany provides free antigen testing services at most once a day at the peak of the epidemic. Some other overseas countries distribute antigen self-test products about 2-10 times a month. The ex factory unit price of Chinese manufacturers is US $0.7-2. According to the detection frequency of 1-2 times per capita per month in the peak period, the ex factory unit price is 8-12 yuan and the total population of 1.4 billion, the market scale of antigen self-test in China in a single month reaches 11.2-33.6 billion yuan.
Recommended targets: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) .
Related businesses: (1) antigen self test kit Kit: (1) antigen self testing kit: (1) related businesses: (1) antigen self testing kit kit kit Kit:: forthe self testing kit Kit: (1) from the following: (1) the kit kit kit Kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen: (1) the kit kit kit kit kit for self testing of the antigen: (1) the kit kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen: (1) the kit kit kit kit for self testing of the antigen: (1) the kit kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen: (1) the kit kit kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen:: fora Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) 5 \ , Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Getein Biotech Inc(603387) , Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) ; (2) Online channels: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) ; (3) Retail pharmacies: Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) .
Risk warning: policy risk, risk of sales not meeting expectations, risk of price decline.
Market review: the sector rebounded, led by medical services and medical devices. This week (March 7-march 11), the biomedical sector fell 1.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.37pct and the gem index by 1.17pct, ranking second among the 30 CITIC primary industries. CITIC pharmaceutical sub sector fell this week except for the chemical API sector. Among them, the chemical API rose by 0.42%, and the medical devices, pharmaceutical circulation, biomedicine, chemical agents, proprietary Chinese medicine, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services fell by 0.85%, 1.76%, 1.85%, 2.2%, 2.34%, 2.53% and 4.13% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
Recent view: high-quality companies have become more and more cost-effective. In the short term, we should continue to suggest two ideas: no game policy, and on the premise that the policy is relatively immune, it is preferred:
1. Covid-19 antigen detection.
1) recommendation: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ;
(2) suggestions and concerns: (1) a self-test kit for an antigen: (1) a suggested concern: (1) a suggested concern: (1) a self-test kit kit for an antigen: (1) a kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen: (1) a kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen: (1) a kit kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen: following: (1) a kit kit kit kit kit for self testing of an antigen: 3 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) self kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit Kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit kit Kit kit kit kit kit kit, Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Getein Biotech Inc(603387) , Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) ; (2) Online channels: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) ; (3) Retail pharmacies: Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) .
2. Rapid growth, continuous improvement of performance and reasonable valuation range.
1) vaccines: Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) ;
2) oral consumables: Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) (active biological bone will be approved soon); Angel of the times (local invisible orthodontic leader)
3) life related upstream: Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) (PEG derivative), Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) (molecular enzyme), Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) (recombinant protein reagent).
3. Downside risk is limited, waiting for Fundamentals to catalyze.
1) blood products sector (leading enterprises are expected to benefit from the 14th five year plan of pulp stations in many provinces and further open the growth of pulp volume, including Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) and Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) );
2) pharmacy sector ( Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (short-term policy disturbance does not change long-term development logic),
3) auxiliary reproductive Service Leader: Jinxin reproductive;
4) China sublingual desensitization faucet Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) ;
5) China's leading pharmaceutical glass enterprise Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) .
Medium and long term perspective: focus on the invariance in change and look for opportunities for relative certainty
With the continuous expansion of the impact of centralized mining, the opportunity at the investment level lies in that the foundation for the establishment of centralized mining is that "multiple enterprises supply mutually replaceable varieties, and the production capacity can be supplied indefinitely in theory". The basis for enterprises to maintain product price and profit space is the competition pattern, and the dynamic excellent competition pattern lies in the ability to continuously develop products and product iteration, which remains unchanged.
Start DRG / Dip reform in 2022. As a means of payment, the core role of DRGs is to achieve a balance between improving the efficiency and quality of diagnosis and treatment and ensuring the sustainability of medical insurance through refined medical insurance management. Hospitals that cannot actively adapt to the rules of the game will be eliminated. The opportunity at the investment level lies in that excellent private medical institutions have paid more attention to cost control for a long time, with higher operation efficiency and competitive advantage.
The general trend of industrial development is: China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industrial manufacturing is upgraded, the competitiveness is continuously improved, and moves upstream in the global production value chain.
The competitiveness of upstream raw materials is prominent:
1) biological "core" - life science support industrial chain: domestic enterprises have developed rapidly, reagent quality has reached the international leading level, and their competitiveness has been continuously improved. Entering the overseas market through global comparative advantage, China benefits from domestic alternative logic, with high growth and great development potential.
19) open the ivd-19 consumables and raw materials supply chain to China.
Accelerated internationalization process: with the breakthrough of key technologies of Chinese enterprises, not only the localization rate of the Chinese market is accelerating, but also some high-quality enterprises have the strength to compete with international giants.
1. Manufacturing upgrading of pharmaceutical industry and continuous improvement of Competitiveness:
Upstream: life science support industry chain, IVD raw materials and consumables, related targets: Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) ;
High end medical devices: endoscope and sequencer, related subjects: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) , Aohua endoscope, Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) ; Huada Zhizao (IPO application in progress);
International layout of medical devices, related subjects: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ;
Others: Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) .
2. Pay attention to the supply pattern: blood products, related subjects: Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) and Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) ; Desensitization preparation, related subject matter: Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) .
3. Private medical service sector with differentiated competition. Ophthalmology, Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) ; Dentistry, Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) ; Assisted reproduction, Jinxin reproduction; Cancer treatment services, Hagia.
4. Pharmacy sector. , , ɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛɛ.
5. Aging and consumption upgrading.
Class II vaccine, related targets: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) and Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) ; Invisible orthodontics, related subjects: Angel of the times;
Risk tips: policy risk, price risk, performance risk less than expected, product R & D risk, expansion progress risk less than expected, medical accident risk, uncertainty of overseas covid-19 virus epidemic, M & A integration risk less than expected, etc.
