Core view
Weekly performance of sectors: this week (2022 / 3 / 7-2022 / 3 / 11), the Yangtze River mechanical equipment index fell 4.9%, and the top five sectors were: heavy truck / coal equipment III / oil and gas equipment / refrigeration and air conditioning equipment / railway equipment, with fluctuations of 0.0% / – 0.1% / – 1.8% / – 3.0% / – 3.1% respectively;
Sector valuation level: the median pettm of the machinery sector is 33x, of which the highest valuation is lithium battery equipment (98.5x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (14.8x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is in the quantile of 15.19%,;
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: the five stocks with the highest increase this week are Wenyi Trinity Technology Co.Ltd(600520) , Silvery Dragon Prestressed Materials Co.Ltd Tianjin(603969) , Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , Unittec Co.Ltd(000925) , Zhejiang Canaan Technology Limited(300412) ;
Industry highlights: (1) due to the continuous tension between Russia and Ukraine, two major neon gas suppliers in Ukraine have stopped operation; (2) Accelerate the construction of nuclear power and promote the continuous development of heating in nuclear power plants; (3) The national development and Reform Commission recently issued a circular to further improve the coal market price formation mechanism and guide coal prices to operate within a reasonable range; (4) Improve the top-level design and accelerate the development of hydrogen energy storage industry.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for equipment has improved, and the sustainability remains to be seen: with the gradual disclosure of the data of the machinery industry in February, we found that the demand for many categories showed signs of bottoming out / stabilizing. (1) From the perspective of general equipment, the manufacturing pmi50 in February 2%, continued to be higher than the boom and bust line, of which the new order index was 50.7%, increased by 1.4pct month on month, and returned to the expansion range. Through grassroots communication with manufacturing enterprises, we believe that the current trend of equipment demand is similar to PMI, and the prosperity has rebounded. (2) From the perspective of construction machinery, the sales volume of excavators in February was 24000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, 17000 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%, and 7000 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 97.7%, which was narrower than that in January. In February, the utilization hours of China’s Komatsu excavator increased by 9% year-on-year, from decline to rise, which also reflects the recovery of downstream construction. We believe that the measures taken in February to stabilize the national economy mainly reflect the positive role of equipment. With the marginal improvement of real estate and the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects, we believe that the demand for equipment is expected to further pick up in March. However, the sustainability remains to be seen. First, the price of raw materials has increased by a certain margin recently, and the profits of machinery enterprises will still be under pressure in the short term; Secondly, from the perspective of real estate industry chain transmission and industrial inventory decontamination, the real demand recovery still needs some time; Finally, the recent covid-19 epidemic is still repeated, or increasing pressure for recovery. The sales volume of machinery industry is at the bottom in March, and it is recommended to pay attention to the growth opportunity of machinery industry.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ( Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ( Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ( Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) ( Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) ( Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) , not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) ( Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) , Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) ( Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) ( Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) , Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) ( Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) , Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ( Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) ( Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) , Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) ( Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) , not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) ( Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) , not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) ( Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) , not rated); (4) Energy equipment: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Unrated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ( Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Unrated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) ( Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Unrated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) ( Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Unrated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) ( Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Unrated), Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) ( Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , Unrated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) ( Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) ( Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) , not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) ( Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) , Unrated), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) ( Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) , Unrated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) ( Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) , Unrated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) ( Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) , Unrated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) ( Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) , Unrated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) ( Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) , Unrated).
Risk tips
The development of the epidemic is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, infrastructure investment is less than expected, raw material prices rise, and Global trade conflicts intensify.
