Market Review
Last week (03070312), the building materials (CITIC) index fell 4.36%, the CSI 300 fell 4.22%, and the float glass fell more. Among individual stocks, Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) , Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) , Luoyang Northglass Technology Co.Ltd(002613) , Beijing Hanjian Heshan Pipeline Co.Ltd(603616) , Zyf Lopsking Aluminum Co.Ltd(002333) led the increase.
What is the impact of soaring crude oil prices on the building materials industry?
As of last Friday, the price of OPEC’s package of crude oil had risen to US $117 / barrel, with the highest rise to US $128 / barrel in the middle of the week. The impact on building materials is mainly reflected in the sub industries of waterproof, coating, pipe and concrete water reducer in consumer building materials. In 2021, the price of raw materials is also in the upward channel, the gross profit margin of q1-q3 is in the process of bottoming out quarter by quarter, and Q4 is expected to pick up. Since the beginning of the year, the increase of raw materials from high to low is titanium dioxide / acrylic acid (coating raw materials) asphalt (waterproof raw materials) PVC / HDPE / PPR (pipe raw materials). Other changes are not obvious. We believe that the impact on the current gross profit margin of enterprises may be limited. On the one hand, waterproof enterprises Superplasticizer enterprises (mainly Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ) can make strategic reserves of raw materials, which is expected to support Q1 production. On the other hand, the current time point is the window period for new orders, which can transmit cost pressure through the price increase of customers. If the price of subsequent raw materials continues to rise, the impact on the industry is coating waterproof water reducer pipe gypsum board; From the perspective of the company, the leader has certain coping strategies, such as controlling the inventory of raw materials ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun, Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ), raising the price of products (enterprises with high C-end share / high market share, such as Weixing and Beixin), hedging of raw materials (such as ad shares, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ), etc. other listed companies and most small and medium-sized enterprises are facing or will be greatly impacted.
Continue to be optimistic about the varieties related to steady growth and fundamental reversal, and recommend photovoltaic glass / electronic glass / pipeline / cement / consumer building materials, etc
1) photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industrial chain, while electronic glass is expected to benefit from the large volume of new products such as domestic substitution and folding screen ( Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Kaisheng and Qibin). The price of float is expected to continue to rise during the resumption of work in spring. The overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance throughout the year, and the unit profit is currently in an upward stage. 2) The downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit, and the investment in municipal pipe network is heating up. The real estate end is similar to consumer building materials (Donghong, Yonggao and Liansu); 3) Cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of subsequent infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to be continuously optimized (Shangfeng, Huaxin, conch, Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ); The concentration of water reducing agent industry is expected to continue to improve, and the leader has the advantages of R & D + service + industrial chain integration, with better growth ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ); 4) Consumer building materials was affected by the pressure of three mountains last year, and the current adverse factors have gradually improved. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration with both long and short logic (Mona, Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Weixing, Beixin, Yuhong, etc.). 5) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by the downstream of wind power and overseas, and the increment on the supply side is limited (Jushi, Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Investment advice
Recommendations for consumer building materials Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , etc; The pipeline recommends China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad shares, etc; Cement recommendations Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Xinyi solar energy, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) etc; Glass fiber recommendation China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) etc;
Risk tip: the demand for infrastructure and real estate fell more than expected, affecting the rising trend of cement and glass prices; The promotion of old reform and new urbanization was less than expected.
