The sales volume of new energy vehicles has maintained high growth, the oil price has risen, the economy of new energy vehicles has become prominent, and the supply of new energy vehicles has been enriched, driven by the market
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid February 2022 was 368 / 334000, with a year-on-year increase of 197.5% / 184.3% and a month on month decrease of 18.6% / 22.5%, which is due to the shortening of the effective production and delivery time of automobile enterprises during the Spring Festival holiday, and the occurrence of sporadic epidemics in many parts of the country, affecting automobile consumption. From January to February, the cumulative production and sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China was 82765000, with a year-on-year increase of 158.2% / 154.7% and a penetration rate of 17.9%, continuing the high growth trend of last year. After years of policy support and market cultivation, consumers’ recognition of new energy vehicles has increased; Major automobile enterprises speed up the pace of new car listing, enrich supply and meet consumer demand; Moreover, with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil price has risen, the economy of new energy vehicles has become more prominent, and the new energy vehicle market has gradually changed from subsidy driven to market driven.
The installed capacity of power battery continues to rise, the Byd Company Limited(002594) production capacity is released, the sales volume is improved, the short-term concentration is improved, and the competition is fierce
From January to February, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery accumulated 29.9gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 109.7%, highlighting the high prospect of the market The cumulative installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is 14.7gwh, accounting for 49.22% Byd Company Limited(002594) ranked second, with a cumulative installed capacity of 6.29gwh, accounting for 21.07%, which is due to the rapid growth of its new energy vehicle sales and the gradual release of battery capacity. In the context of the improvement of short-term concentration, battery factories are highly competitive and expand production capacity and customers under cost pressure.
The sharp rise in nickel price caused concerns about the cost of lithium battery, the tight supply and demand of lithium resources supported the high price of lithium, and the upstream profit thickened
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, financial sanctions, capital profit seeking game and other factors caused the sharp rise of nickel price, which caused the market to worry about the cost pressure of lithium battery ternary cathode materials. In terms of supply, the proportion of lithium battery materials in nickel consumption is still very low. Cathode and precursor manufacturers Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Zhongwei, etc. have smelting projects in Indonesia, which can effectively ensure China’s nickel supply. The impact of short-term events may gradually weaken. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of financial sanctions on nickel supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Sqm’s performance exceeded expectations and the demand expectation was significantly raised, reflecting the confidence of overseas lithium enterprises in the high outlook of the industry. The tight supply and demand of lithium salt strongly supports the medium and long-term high lithium price, which is expected to drive the performance of lithium companies to continue to achieve high growth; At the same time, lithium salt supply may become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and lower reaches, and the profit will move up; The high performance of lithium section underestimates the value. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality lithium target with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources, stable output at low cost and continuous expansion of production.
Investment suggestions: three main lines: first, capacity release, cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc; Three mid stream material link companies that have clear patterns, clear advantages, and a clear, dominant, and still tight supply and demand: the mid stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and obvious middle stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and clear middle stream material link companies: the ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) \ , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates. It is recommended to pay attention to the company’s profit forecast and rating:
