Looking at 2022 at the current time point, challenges and opportunities coexist in the optional consumption sector, and there are still bright spots in the dark
Looking back on 2021, adverse factors such as rising raw material prices, tight shipping capacity, rising shipping costs and declining real estate boom have brought many challenges to the optional consumer industry. At the current time point, there are still many negative factors in the optional consumption sector. Specifically: (1) the decline in market risk preference drives the decline in the valuation of the optional consumption sector; (2) The price trend of subsequent raw materials is highly uncertain; (3) The weakening trend of real estate sales data continues; (4) Doubts about the recovery of overseas demand; The trend of sea freight rate is uncertain, and the logic of improving the profitability of sea enterprises needs to be further observed. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that challenges and opportunities coexist, and there are still bright spots in the dark: (1) the cost performance of high-quality targets with steady growth and high long-term development competition barriers gradually appear, providing appropriate layout opportunities. (2) The expected relaxation of real estate and other favorable policies occur frequently, and the opportunities for industrial structural growth and valuation repair are expected to appear. (3) 2022q2 has entered a low base, the sea transportation price has been loosened, and the sea transportation capacity has increased or alleviated the performance pressure of enterprises going to sea. (4) The supply gap, the mild rise in the price of cultural paper in the short term under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are expected to continue, and the cultivation of diamonds is expected to benefit under the background of the rise in the price of natural diamond blanks. It is expected that cultural paper manufacturing enterprises and diamond leading enterprises will usher in periodic opportunities. In terms of white electricity, the profitability is greatly affected by raw materials. It is suggested to pay attention to the easing of the international situation, the stabilization and decline of raw material prices under the improvement of commodity supply, and look forward to the recovery opportunities of white electricity leaders under the improvement of cost and the relaxation of real estate expectations.
Defense main line 1: underestimate the value of layout and look for new highlights
It is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises whose basic business is stable, the new expansion business is expected to continue to provide high growth, and the valuation has entered the safe investment margin. (1) In the household appliance sector, the recommended core main business has a solid leading position, and new energy and LED drive into the fast lane Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) ; Focus on the upstream enterprises of high-quality household appliances under the new energy outlet, recommend Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , and benefit the target Zhejiang Dun’An Artificial Environment Co.Ltd(002011) and Ningbo Dechang Electrical Machinery Made Co.Ltd(605555) ; Recommend JS global life with stable fundamentals and underestimated value. In addition, we are also optimistic about the Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co.Ltd(603868) , the implementation of channel reform and the expected repair of hair dryer share. (2) In the home furnishing sector, Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Minhua holdings with clear market share promotion path are recommended; Recommend customized leaders for internal management optimization and business improvement Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ; Recommend Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , with rapid growth of independent brand retail; Recommend the cultural and creative leader with steady growth of core business and rapid development of new business Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) . (3) In the textile and clothing sector, it is suggested to lay out the leading companies in all links of the sportswear field with stable fundamentals and poor expectations in 2022, as well as the home textile sector with high dividend underestimated value and steady performance growth. Recommend taobo, Anta sports, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , and be optimistic about home textile leaders.
Defense main line 2: still on the left, focus on the rebound of overseas business after 2022q2
The export market in 2022q2 will enter a low base. It is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of the export business margin of overseas enterprises. Recommend Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , where domestic sales continue to exceed expectations and export sales are expected to improve quarter by quarter; Recommend Anker Innovations Technology Co.Ltd(300866) , where the disadvantages of the sweeper are supplemented and the pressure on the revenue side is expected to be relieved; It is recommended that the domestic moffy brand continue to push forward the new situation, restore high growth, and the export is expected to improve Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) . It is recommended that the impact of core shortage is weakened, and the sales expectation under the low base continues to increase Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) .
Periodic layout: pay attention to cultural paper and cultivate opportunities for periodic layout of diamond leaders
Affected by the disturbance of the supply chain and the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, it is expected that the price rise of cultural paper will continue in the short term, and the cultivation of diamonds is expected to benefit from the rise in the price of natural diamond gross profit. Recommend cultural paper leader with outstanding cost advantage and expected improvement of profitability Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) . It is recommended to accelerate the expansion of production and strengthen business coordination to cultivate diamond leaders Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) .
Risk tips: the epidemic affects offline retail, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the sea freight rate remains high.
