On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.33 yuan / kg, down 1.36% from last Friday. On Friday, the average price of Sanyuan piglets sold outside 15kg nationwide was 25.30 yuan / kg, down 3.98% from last Friday. Pig prices fluctuated and fell again this week, but mainly in the north. Because the collection and storage has a certain boost to the confidence of farmers, the current mood of farmers has decreased, resulting in a certain increase in the difficulty of pig collection in some areas. However, because the market is generally optimistic about the market in the second half of the year, the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the collection and storage bidding is low. It is reported that there was a flow auction on the collection and storage of the second batch of frozen pork reserves of the central government on March 10, and the specific situation is unknown. It is expected that under the influence of collection and storage, the short-term pig price is expected to rise moderately, but the probability that the monthly average price will continue to fall month on month is still high. We believe that after the festival, the pig price has quickly opened a second round of bottom exploration. At present, the pig price is still hovering at the bottom, and there is the possibility of further downward exploration. In addition, the sharp rise in feed price caused by the current bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) comprehensive price increase will lead to the high breeding cost, and the continuous loss will further promote the industry to take the initiative to reduce production capacity, This will further strengthen our expectation of starting the next round of cycle rise in 22 years. From the perspective of cycle dimension, the pressure of industrial cash flow is large, and the loss leads to a strong trend and certainty of continuous capacity removal. From the perspective of enterprises, it is suggested to focus on the phased achievements of enterprise capacity layout, marketing planning and cost reduction and efficiency increase. At the current time point, we continue to focus on the pig breeding sector. We believe that at this stage, the inflection point of the cycle is expected to gradually increase. Although the sector has increased significantly, the de novo average market value dimension is still in the bottom range. Continue to recommend and focus on the aquaculture enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, followed by the second-line and small American Standard enterprises that focus on the reversal of difficulties, the expectation of greater cost improvement and the certainty of listing growth, with emphasis on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases were: Fishery 1.84%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing – 2.86%, livestock and poultry breeding – 3.46%, planting – 4.25%, feed – 5.35% and animal health care – 8.25%. The top five companies are: Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(605016) -11.08%, Wanxiang Doneed Co.Ltd(600371) -11.16%, Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) -12.32%, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) -12.56%, Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) -12.68%.
Key tracking:
1. Muyuan released the pig sales briefing from January to February 2022
Event: on March 8, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) released the company’s pig sales briefing from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company sold 7.831 million pigs, with a sales revenue of 10.162 billion yuan, of which the average sales price of commercial pigs was 12.38 yuan / kg.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201)
[suggestions for attention] Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526)
Risk tips: the risk of livestock and poultry price fluctuation, the impact of extreme weather, the impact of animal diseases, etc.
