Securities: the average daily turnover of the market this week increased by 120 billion to 1.09 trillion month on month; The balance of the two financial institutions (3.10) fell slightly to 1.71 trillion. In the February financial data released by the central bank on Friday, the core indicators such as m2 and RMB loans did not meet expectations, especially the rare reduction of medium and long-term loans to households, reflecting the severity of the problem of insufficient demand. Combined with the expected target of GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022 in the government work report and the continuous promotion of financial opening-up, an important reform of capital markets such as the comprehensive registration system, it is expected that the support of fiscal and monetary policies will be further strengthened during the year. In addition, according to the data of China securities registration, 1.4146 million investors were added in February, with a month on month increase of 6.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The continuous adjustment of the equity market suppressed the enthusiasm of investors. Due to the lag of new investor indicators compared with the market, if the market continues to be depressed, it is a high probability event that the increment in March and April continues to decline year-on-year. However, combined with the seasonal changes in previous years, the month on month improvement may continue. At the same time, we can see that since the beginning of the year, except Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) , individual stocks in the sector have fallen to varying degrees, especially the core subject of wealth management. The lower expectations caused by the market downturn, the relatively high (but not high absolute) valuation in the sector and the continuous negative feedback from the “label” of wealth management put pressure on the valuation of relevant targets. However, the annual report season is coming. In contrast, the above targets are the head and neck targets with high certainty of performance growth in the sector. We believe that after a long period of adjustment, the valuation level of the core targets of wealth management has fallen to a reasonably low level. At the time of the return of performance focus, the investment value of the relevant targets is prominent. If the market adjustment is coming to an end, Its valuation repair is a high probability event.
Insurance: some listed insurance companies released the original premium data in February. On the whole, the life insurance and property insurance in February were better than those in January. The premiums of PICC Life Insurance, CPIC life insurance and New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) February all achieved double-digit growth, and the year-on-year decline of premiums in China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) February was also narrower than that in January; The improvement of property insurance continued, and PICC Property Insurance and CPIC property insurance maintained double-digit growth after January. However, considering the base factor, the multi-point outbreak of the national epidemic in March, the difference in the sales mode of life insurance and the passenger car data and supply chain in January and February, it is expected that the recovery progress and growth rate of property insurance will still be better than that of life insurance. In addition, the change of residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure may last for a long time, and the decline of income growth is expected to be difficult to reverse quickly, which puts forward higher requirements for insurance product design and sales strategy. However, referring to the 2021 annual report disclosed by AIA on Friday, it can reverse the market to achieve 18% growth rate of new business value and 13% growth rate of embedded value, indicating the necessity of customer accurate portrait and personalized product strategy. The price sensitivity of high net worth customers is relatively low, and there are some differences in their essential needs. Digging and maximizing their needs may become the way for insurance enterprises to break the situation.
Sector performance: during the five trading days from March 7 to March 11, the non bank sector fell by 5.58% as a whole. According to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the non bank ranked 25 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector fell 5.41%, underperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 4.22%); The insurance sector fell 6.29%, underperforming the CSI 300 index. In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers of securities companies are Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (14.32%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (5.75%), Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) (1.13%), Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) (0.94%), Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (0.21%); The rise and fall of insurance companies were The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (- 3.66%), Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000627) (- 4.88%), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 5.91%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (- 7.16%), ST Xishui (- 7.40%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 8.14%), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 9.00%).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
