Demand side: the new resident credit contracted in February, and the mortgage supply was blocked. It is expected to pick up in the future
In February 2022, short-term loans to residents decreased by 291.1 billion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 22 billion yuan and a month-on-month decrease of 391.7 billion yuan; In February, the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion yuan and a month-on-month decrease of 788.3 billion yuan.
The Ministry of housing and urban rural development put forward the “reasonable improvement of house purchase” on February 24; On March 5, the national “two sessions” were held, which clearly proposed to “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable purchase needs of buyers”. We believe that the reasonably improved demand for house purchase brought by the “multi child policy” and “home-based elderly care” is expected to be further supported, the credit support for improved house purchase is expected to be further improved, and the contraction of residents’ credit may be alleviated to a certain extent in the short term in the future.
Supply side: in February, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic bond issuance became positive, and the primary market of overseas bonds continued to be depressed
In February 2022, the domestic and foreign real estate enterprises issued a total of 33.2 billion yuan of bonds in a single month, with a month on month ratio of – 29.2% (January + 2.9%), a year-on-year ratio of – 25.8% (January – 71.3%), and a monthly net financing of – 8.1 billion yuan (January – 41.8 billion yuan). Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic bond issuance became positive in February, with a monthly issuance of 30.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 7.3%, a year-on-year increase of 59.8% (January – 60.0%), a monthly net financing of 13.3 billion yuan, and the domestic financing environment has been improved to a certain extent; In February, the volume of overseas bond issuance decreased significantly, with a monthly issuance of 3.1 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 78.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 88.1% (January – 82.5%), and a monthly net financing amount of about – 21.5 billion yuan (January – 23.7 billion yuan). In February 2022, the establishment amount of real estate collective trust was about 8.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.4%, accounting for 17.1% of the establishment scale of collective trust in a single month, which was higher than that in January.
Since the beginning of 2022, although the central bank, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other parties have released capital area pole signals, the domestic debt financing of real estate enterprises has still shown a weak trend because the confidence of financing subjects and financial institutions in the real estate industry has not been fully repaired. In addition, from January to February 2022, new defaults on the overseas foreign debt of real estate enterprises continued to occur, many real estate enterprises were downgraded in February, and the cumulative maturity of the overseas foreign debt of real estate enterprises in March is expected to exceed 100 billion. The superposition of these adverse factors has plunged the primary market of overseas bonds into a continuous downturn, and the Chinese dollar real estate bond index has continued to decline since February this year. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, we believe that as the liquidity of the real estate industry continues to ease, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable purchase demand of buyers, and the confidence of market subjects is further restored, the subsequent supply side real estate bond issuance is expected to change the weak trend, and the issuance scale will be significantly improved.
Investment suggestions: 1) since the beginning of 2022, many parties have released the capital area pole signal, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, the affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, the new measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been structurally corrected, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” restoration has entered the implementation stage, and the liquidity of the real estate industry continues to ease. 2) While the liquidity is easing, China’s prudent management of real estate finance and the trend of “deleveraging” will continue to deepen, and some of the early overly radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but China’s real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. The high-quality real estate enterprises adhering to the principle of “moderate leverage, steady operation, quality and orderly development” will usher in the development opportunity of “orderly competition”, and gradually lead China’s real estate industry to the iterative upgrading of “rationalization of profits, refinement of management, high-quality products and green construction”. 3) On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to “meet the reasonable demand for improved house purchase”. On March 5, the government work report of the national two sessions made it clear that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand of house buyers”. We believe that the follow-up improvement of real estate credit support is expected to be improved, and the issuance of real estate bonds is expected to be large. 4) Recently, the market has paid more attention to the real estate sector and is optimistic about the long-term performance of high-quality leading real estate enterprises. It recommends China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China Overseas Hongyang group, China Resources Land, Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring and Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China falling short of expectations, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases.
