Lack of core restricts the release of independent leading production and marketing, and 2022h2 is expected to start a new round of industrial recovery
In February, the sales volume of great wall and Chang'an was much lower than that of the industry / joint venture, which was mainly caused by the shortage of automotive electronic parts such as ESP (Bosch ESP is the exclusive supplier of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) main models). At present, Great Wall is actively looking for point B to replace, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) looking for suppliers to replace chips made in China. The lack of core brings replacement opportunities to the domestic supply chain. We expect that the supply of the industrial chain is expected to gradually improve in March, and the subsequent chip recovery is expected to drive the sales up. Although the production and sales of the two independent leaders were limited in February, the total sales from January to February met our previous expectations. We judged that 2022 was the turning point of China's passenger car industry, and the annual growth rate was expected to be about 7%. At present, the inventory cycle of the automobile industry is in the passive replenishment stage, and it is expected that 2022h2 is expected to start a new round of industry recovery.
The inflection point of domestic substitution has come, and the enterprise valuation of parts in the intelligent sector is expected to be repaired
The escalation of the overseas situation superimposed the impact of the epidemic, the balance of global chip supply and demand was under pressure, the shipment of automotive electronic parts was greatly impacted, and the vehicle output of vehicle manufacturers downstream of the automotive industry chain was seriously affected, resulting in low sales expectations of some independent brands in February. In order to cope with the production capacity pressure caused by the shortage of chips, independent brand automobile enterprises have introduced independent brand suppliers to "strengthen the chain and supplement the chain" to improve the security of the supply chain. Benefiting from the demand of "strengthening the chain and supplementing the chain" of independent brands, independent core suppliers have comprehensively ushered in new opportunities for domestic substitution. At present, many independent car enterprises such as great wall, Chang'an, Geely, ideal, Xiaopeng and Zero run have gradually improved their recognition of Chinese parts suppliers, and large orders have accelerated the process of domestic substitution. The penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles has increased rapidly and is opening a new round of zhugra cycle in the industry. The auto parts sector is the main investment direction of the production capacity cycle in the next 10 years.
The performance of Shanghai and Shenzhen auto industry was weak (- 19.75%) in the week, ranking the 4th place in Shanghai and Shenzhen auto industry (- 4.75%). In the segment, other transportation equipment - 2.72%, automobile service - 3.73%, commercial passenger cars - 4.95%, auto parts - 5.16%, passenger cars - 5.16%, and commercial cargo vehicles - 6.39%. The top five gainers of the auto sector this week were Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) (+ 11.70%), Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) (+ 11.07%), Shanghai Jiao Yun Group Co.Ltd(600676) (+ 10.24%), Wuxi Commercial Mansion Grand Orient Co.Ltd(600327) (+ 8.44%), Linhai Co.Ltd(600099) (+ 6.54%); The top five declines were Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) (- 11.72%), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (- 11.72%), Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) (- 12.58%), No. 9 company WD (- 14.61%) and Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co.Ltd(002265) (- 15.99%).
Investment advice
At the end of this round of active replenishment cycle, the industry has determined to enter the passive replenishment stage in May 2021. The passenger car sector has been fully repaired after the recovery period, with a significant premium compared with the parts sector. Before confirming the recovery of a new round of automobile cycle, there is only band opportunity. The automobile sector generates sub industries in rotation, and the parts sector is expected to become the main line of optimal allocation. For passenger cars, it is suggested to pay attention to Geely motors, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ; The parts section recommends companies related to chassis by wire Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical And Electronic Co.Ltd(300695) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (covered by communication group), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
Risk tip: the squeeze of real estate on consumption and the higher than expected rise of raw material costs have restored the low gross profit margin of the industry; The global supply of chips exceeded expectations.
