Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: the 2022 government work report puts forward the goal of GDP growth of 5.5% in 2022. At the same time, it is mentioned that 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds of local governments will be arranged this year. Infrastructure has become the primary starting point for stabilizing the economy. At the same time, with the continuous commencement of key projects around the country, the demand for cement will continue to rise. Local cement enterprises will also gradually end off peak production, supply and demand will recover simultaneously, and local cement market will also usher in signs of recovery. Procurement matchmaking meetings between construction units and building materials enterprises have been held in some regions. On the one hand, it helps the construction enterprises to solve the problem of overstock of steel products and cement products in the downstream industry. On the other hand, it also helps the construction enterprises to eliminate the inventory of major products. (2) Glass fiber sector: the demand of China’s roving market has started fairly recently, and the shipment of each factory is relatively stable. The short-term supply side has little change, and the demand support is good. The price of electronic yarn market is still low in the near future. After the ignition production line was put into operation in the early stage, the supply increased slightly, but the downstream cost pressure is large, which still conflicts with the high price supply. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to follow up the changes of production, sales and demand to adjust the price. (3) Glass sector: the float glass market has improved in some areas, and the downstream demand has recovered steadily, promoting the upstream enterprises to increase production capacity, but the production and sales of float plants in most areas are still low. At the same time, affected by the turbulence of the international situation, the transportation cost has increased. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: at present, infrastructure construction has become the primary focus of stabilizing the economy. Major engineering projects in various provinces and cities continue to start activities, which has formed a support for the demand for cement. In addition, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development recently set the tone for real estate regulation in 2022, saying that this year we should maintain the smooth operation of the real estate market, maintain the continuity and stability of regulation policies, enhance the accuracy and coordination of regulation policies, promote the structural reform of housing supply side, vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing and vigorously promote “new urban construction”, It is expected to further boost cement demand. (2) Fundamentals: this week, the national cement market price started an upward trend, with a month on month increase of 0.5%. In early March, the demand of China’s cement market maintained a slow increase, and the shipment rate of enterprises in different regions increased by 10% – 20% month on month. With the gradual increase of market demand and driven by the rising costs of coal, oil price and freight, the price of cement in many places is rising. At present, it is recommended to take the lead in the cement area Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) .
Recommended glass fiber industry: the demand of China’s roving market has started fairly recently, and the shipment of each factory is relatively stable. The short-term supply side has little change, and the demand support is good. The price of electronic yarn market is still low in the near future. After the ignition production line is put into operation in the early stage, the supply has increased slightly, but the downstream cost pressure is large, which still conflicts with the high price supply. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to follow up the changes of production and sales and demand to adjust the price. At the same time, at the macro level, we will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, improve the future demand of wind power, and further increase the demand space of glass fiber industry. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: this week, China’s float glass market is weak, the transaction is general, and there are regional differences. Downstream demand starts slowly, most of them have not recovered to full load, the problem of lack of orders still exists, and the inventory in the middle and downstream still needs time to digest. Supply: there are 304 float glass production lines in China, 261 of which are in production. The daily melting capacity is lower than that of last week, and there is no ignition line at present. Demand: during the week, China’s float glass market demand gradually recovered, and the downstream processing plants have not yet returned to normal operation. In terms of cost: the average price of heavy alkali decreased slightly during the week, but the overall level is still high. Fuel products increased to varying degrees during the week, and the overall production cost further increased. The comprehensive profit decreased month on month, and the overall operation was in line with expectations. Focus on the industry leader Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) with cost advantage, and Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, CSG a, Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . Recommend the gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , the company’s “one body and two wings” layout is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leader Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
