Energy storage:
1. Under the background of the continuous rise of raw materials, our thoughts on the energy storage sector are as follows:
(1) price level: the rise of lithium price has indeed pushed up the quotation of energy storage system. The price of lithium carbonate increased by 100000 yuan per ton, corresponding to an increase of about 0.06 yuan / wh in the cost of energy storage cells. In the overseas market, the quotation of energy storage battery has risen from the average price of US $0.15/wh in 2021 to the current US $0.2/wh; In the Chinese market, the quotation of energy storage system has also increased from the average price of 1.5 yuan / wh in 2021 to the current 1.8 yuan / wh.
(2) demand level: in terms of price sensitivity, Europe ＜ the United States ＜ China, household ＜ large industrial and commercial and ground power stations. Geographically, due to the factors of electricity price transmission mechanism, China has the highest price sensitivity, and Europe has the lowest price sensitivity to energy storage system due to the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; By scenario, large-scale industrial and commercial and ground power stations involve the reduction of IRR, so they are more price sensitive. In terms of actual demand, the current impact is generally controllable. In China, the installed capacity of energy storage is mainly on the power generation side. At present, most provinces and cities have issued energy storage and forced distribution policies, and most of them require the allocation of 10% – 20% (1-2 hours) of energy storage facilities. On March 7, Inner Mongolia added weight again in the “on promoting the high-quality development of wind power photovoltaic new energy industry in the whole region”, and proposed new market-oriented grid connected new energy projects, In principle, the energy storage capacity of the allocated construction shall not be less than 15% of the installed capacity of the new energy project, and the energy storage time shall be more than 4 hours. Overseas, the overall impact on the home savings office is small; Large-scale industrial and commercial and ground power stations have been affected to some extent, but the economy is still guaranteed, and the overall market demand is strong. The cost problem needs to be continuously observed. If the system quotation is still forced to go up, the downstream demand may face great challenges.
(3) valuation: under the high growth rate of the industry, the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range. With the high cost of raw materials, we expect the global energy storage industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022. Starting from the phased high point at the end of November 2021, as of March 11, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 30%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on March 11, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 / 2023 PE is 39 / 28 times 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 022 / 2023 PE is 46 / 35 times.
2. Investment suggestion: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market’s expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China’s steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on March 11, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 28 times.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
