Key investment points:
Recently, the comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration issued the notice on matters related to the planning and research of renewable energy integration in major river basins in China, proposing to carry out the research work of “water scenery renewable energy integration base” in seven river basins, including the Yangtze River, the Yellow River and the Pearl river.
Accelerate the integration of water and scenery, and open up the second growth curve of hydropower. “Water scenery complementarity” refers to the combination of wind, light power generation and hydropower unit power based on the hydropower base and using the existing transmission line channel of hydropower station and the rapid regulation capacity of hydropower unit. With the accelerated implementation of the dual carbon goal, the complementarity of water and scenery has been emphasized by the policy again. In 2021, Sichuan and Guizhou provinces proposed to vigorously build a 10 million kilowatt water scenery integrated energy base on the basis of existing hydropower stations, and millions of kilowatt projects in Hubei and other places were successively signed and promoted.
The integration of water and scenery is feasible and economical, which can effectively help the consumption of new energy. The main reasons for vigorously promoting the complementarity of water and scenery are as follows: 1) objective feasibility, the location of large hydropower stations is often rich in wind and light resources, and the integration of water and scenery improves the comprehensive utilization rate of energy; 2) Complementary power generation, water and scenery complement each other in different power generation time periods, smooth the quarterly and daily power grid load and improve the consumption of scenery; 3) In terms of cost economy, the development cost of new energy in the western and southwest regions is lower than that in the central and eastern regions. Taking the outward transmission of the upper reaches of the Jinsha River as an example, the average kwh cost of cascade hydropower is about 0.4050/kwh, the theoretical level of photovoltaic lcoe in the near region is about 0.26 yuan / kWh, and the total transmission cost is about 0.1 yuan / kWh, which is compared with the benchmark price of 0.38 ~ 0.45 yuan / kwh in Central China, Water and scenery can complement each other, which is conducive to improving the competitiveness of electricity prices.
Investment suggestions: 1) in the industry, accelerate the construction of water scenery integrated energy base, open up the second growth curve of hydropower, improve the comprehensive utilization rate of power supply at the transmission end, and effectively help the consumption of scenery. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating. 2) In terms of individual stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to the river basin development entities China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) .
Risk warning: focus on the company’s performance improvement is not as expected, the project construction is not as expected, the risk of electricity price decline, the power demand is not as expected, and the risk of policy change
