Core view
The high prosperity and valuation elasticity of the semiconductor sector have become an important variety of market game rebound. In the past week, the Shanghai stock index fell 4.00%, electronics fell 4.27%, semiconductors in sub industries fell 2.31%, consumer electronics fell 6.48%, and electronics fell 19.51% since the beginning of the year, ranking the second in the industry. The market’s concern about the consumption prospect under the repeated local epidemic and complex international situation has become an important factor to suppress the valuation of 3C sector, The high prosperity and valuation elasticity of the semiconductor sector (especially the upstream equipment, materials and vehicle specification market) have become an important variety of market game rebound. Combined with our previous semiconductor series reports, we continue to recommend the leaders of equipment, simulation and other subdivision directions at the current time point. At the same time, compared with 2018, when the market is pessimistic about the consistency of mobile phone volume and price growth space, we believe that the “electronic +” trend represented by aiot and smart cars is still in the stage of “quantitative change leads to qualitative change”, and the folding screen, VraR and glory industrial chain still have more than expected potential throughout the year.
Vivo’s first folding screen mobile phone will be released in April, and the hinge cost is expected to exceed 1200 yuan. According to the report of science and technology innovation board daily, vivo’s first flagship folding screen machine xfold will be released in April. Due to the addition of multiple aerospace materials, its hinge costs more than 1200 yuan, which is the highest cost of folding screen hinge on the market, and will be greatly improved in the number of folds; At the same time, the product also uses six carefully arranged NdFeB magnets to resist the tension of UTG glass and ensure good performance under extreme conditions. We believe that Q2 new products in the folding screen industry chain are catalysed frequently and the annual performance is expected to meet high expectations. We continue to recommend Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) , Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603626) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) and other related targets.
The layout of aiot is accelerated. Huawei’s whole house intelligent and full scene new product launch will be held on March 16. Huawei officially announced that it would hold 2022 Huawei’s whole house intelligent and full scene new product spring conference at 19:00 on March 16. According to zhijia.com, Huawei will bring more people-friendly whole house intelligence and full scene new products at this press conference, including 10 inch, 6-inch, 4-inch and desktop central control screen. We continue to be optimistic about the 3C industrial chain, which continues to release the growth potential of category expansion under the development trend of electronic non electronic products and intelligent simple electronic products in the aiot era. The aiot industrial chain continues to recommend Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , etc.
TSMC 8-inch wafer foundry will raise prices, and the expansion of local wafer foundry capacity will enter a long cycle. According to DIGITIMES, TSMC may raise the OEM quotation of 8-inch wafers by 10-20% again in 3q22 to cope with the rising costs of raw materials. As the 8-inch production capacity is still tight, we believe that the probability of fulfilling the price increase plan is high, or it will put pressure on the gross profit margin of design companies relying on mature processes in the downstream. Icinsights predicts that the global market share of mainland pure wafer foundry will reach 8.8% in 2026. Although SMIC and Huahong have accelerated the expansion of production in recent years, it is only slightly higher than 8.5% in 2021 and still far from the peak of 11.4% in 2006. We believe that under the complex international situation, the scale and sustainability of China’s wafer manufacturing expansion are expected to exceed expectations, and continue to recommend local equipment Material faucet Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , etc.
The development of domestic vehicle specification level power devices has accelerated, and good news has been sent from Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) one after another. On March 9, Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) announced that the IGBT Series products independently designed and developed by Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) have been successfully produced; In addition, Wentai Lingang, China’s first 12 inch vehicle specification wafer factory, was capped at the end of February, with an estimated monthly production capacity of 45000 chips. After completion, it will effectively alleviate the production pressure of ANSYS semiconductor. Previously, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) announced on February 21 that it planned to increase 885 million capital to Shilan Jike (12 inch line) with the second phase of the large fund. As the first power semiconductor company invested by the second phase of the large fund, the company achieved a 12 inch monthly production of 40000 chips by the end of the year, and has the vehicle specification level IGBT process capability. In the context of the current shortage of vehicle specification chips, continue to recommend local IDM leaders Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) and Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , who have experience in vehicle specification product introduction and mass production and have new production capacity.
Key portfolio
Consumer electronics: Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co.Ltd(688036) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Hongli Zhihui Group Co.Ltd(300219) , Suzhou Shihua New Material Technology Co.Ltd(688093) , Kunshan Kersen Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603626) , Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) , Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100)
Semiconductor: Sg Micro Corp(300661) \ , Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) , Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Sai Microelectronics Inc(300456)
Equipment and materials: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) 3 Tianjin Futong Information Science&Technology Co.Ltd(000836) 88312
Passive parts: Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic And Technology Co.Ltd(002859) , Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.Ltd(002138) , Guang Dong Fenghua Advanced Technology (Holding) Co.Ltd(000636) , Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738)
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the downstream demand; Industrial development is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies
