Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: Residents’ medium and long-term loans recorded a negative value for the first time, and the policy easing is expected to continue
According to the social finance data released in February, the new amount of residents’ medium and long-term loans was – 45.9 billion, recording a negative value for the first time in nearly 15 years, reflecting the still weak demand in the real estate market; We think there is no need to be overly pessimistic about this data. From the perspective of the main component of residents’ medium and long-term loans, mortgage loans have their own attributes, there is a certain lag in the sales data, and their own fluctuation level is high; In addition to the weak fundamentals, the policy face value needs more expectations.
On March 11, the social financing data in February were released, in which the new medium and long-term loans of residents was – 45.9 billion, the first negative value in nearly 15 years. Sales in the real estate market have yet to recover, resulting in a weak increase in medium – and long-term loans for residents dominated by housing mortgage loans.
From the social finance data, the fundamental pressure of the current industry is at an all-time high. Compared with the medium and long-term new financing amount of residents in February of each year in history, the current financing amount is far lower than the historical average, and is 78.4 billion, 169.4 billion and 83 billion lower than that in 2012, 2014 and 2020, respectively.
Although judging from the social finance data, there is great pressure on the fundamentals of the industry at present, we believe that there are certain internal reasons for the negative value recorded in the social finance data level, and there is no need to over interpret the negative value recorded this time:
(1) there is a certain lag in the response of mortgage loans to the commercial housing market. The main component of residents’ medium and long-term loans is mortgage loans, and mortgage loans still need a certain approval time after the sale of commercial housing. Therefore, the data of mortgage loans will naturally lag behind the fundamentals of the commercial housing market.
(2) from the historical data, the new amount of residents’ medium and long-term loans is highly related to the sales heat of the real estate market, but the former fluctuates more and lags behind. By comparing the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales and new medium and long-term loans, we can find that the former tends to reverse the trend earlier. In addition, the fluctuation range of the year-on-year growth rate of commodity sales is also significantly lower than that of medium and long-term loans. The excessive fluctuation of individual months does not necessarily represent the deterioration of fundamentals, and the long-term trend performance still needs to be observed.
In addition to the fundamentals, the policy direction remained loose this week. On March 8, Zhengzhou issued the implementation opinions on actively promoting the monetized resettlement of greenhouse residential area reconstruction projects, requiring that the monetized resettlement be vigorously promoted in three years through the implementation of monetized resettlement, so as to ensure that the relocation and resettlement of people will be completed in 2024. This policy will accelerate the depopulation of existing houses in Zhengzhou, help to build a healthy relationship between supply and demand in the commercial housing market and promote the healthy development of the market.
On the whole, it will take time for the industry policy to remain moderate and good this week, and it will take time for the good to pass on to the fundamentals. Under the mutual guidance of fundamentals and policies, the continuous downturn of the sales market is also conducive to the further introduction of loose policies. In the future, we will pay attention to the real estate development and sales data and interest rate trend announced on the 15th of this month. Data tracking (February 28-March 6):
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is – 43 PCT and – 28 PCT in one week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities – 48 PCT, – 25 PCT, second tier cities – 68 PCT, – 65 PCT, third tier cities + 19 PCT and + 23 PCT.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 13 cities was – 24 PCT year-on-year in a single week and – 29 PCT year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is + 10 PCT year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 30 PCT year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 61 PCT year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 1.01%.
City market chain comparison: Beijing (- 22 PCT), Shanghai (+ 65 PCT), Guangzhou (+ 25 PCT), Shenzhen (+ 24 PCT), Nanjing (+ 2 PCT), Hangzhou (+ 79 PCT), Wuhan (+ 92 PCT) investment strategy: it is recommended to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Greentown China, etc. under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, and some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default.
