Banking stocks: industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by – 4.62%, – 4.50%, – 1.29% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 18th, 13th and 4th among the 31 Shenwan industries.
In terms of weeks, the share prices of listed banks generally fell. Among them, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) share prices fell significantly, with – 8.73%, – 7.59% and – 6.42% respectively. Monthly, the stock prices of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) and Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) rose by 3.79%, 2.89% and 0.63% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: the net withdrawal of money and the rise of inter-bank market interest rate
The total amount of money put in this week was 50 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 380 billion yuan, and the net return of money was 330 billion yuan, a decrease of 100 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, 760 billion yuan of currency has been recovered.
This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate increased.
On March 11, dr001 was 2.07%, an increase of 13bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.16%, an increase of 11bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 2.10%, up 13bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.27%, up 11bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the issuing interest rate of 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit increased. On March 11, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.30%, 2.51% and 2.64% respectively, with changes of – 6bps, + 5bps and + 6bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds was flat, and the term interest spread of US bonds expanded
The yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds decreased this week, and the term spread was basically the same as last Friday. On March 11, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.09% and 2.79% respectively, down 2bps compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.70%, basically flat compared with last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term spread widened. On March 11, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.22% and 2.00% respectively, with changes of + 17bps and + 26bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.78%, up 9bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises increased and the yield of tips decreased
(1) on March 10, the US secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, unchanged from last Friday. (2) On March 9, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.94%, up 4bps from last Friday. (3) On March 11, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.94%, down 1bp from last Friday.
Investment advice
The decline in the growth rate of social finance is expected to put pressure on the 10-year Treasury bonds and bank stocks as a whole. After the expected increase in steady growth, the decline in the growth rate of social finance has a greater lethality to the capital market, and a stronger policy force is urgently needed. The recent strong performance of the RMB also provides room for easing policy. We add Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) to the recommended combination: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
