Market performance
Last week, the food and beverage sector index fell by 2.06% as a whole, ranking third in the Shenwan sub industry, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.16% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.94% respectively. In the sub sectors, snacks, -10.10%, -7.92%, flavoring fermented products (-6.60%), beer (-6.31%), baked food (-6.23%), soft drinks (-5.32%), other alcoholic beverages (-3.76%), dairy products (-3.11%), meat products (-3.08%) and Baijiu (-0.64%) all showed a downward trend.
Investment recommendation
Popular products: the epidemic has made a comeback, the demand recovery has twists and turns, and the first choice in the uncertain environment is Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . There is a long logic to improve the profitability of the company. We believe that, different from the traditional development mode of “vertical integration with dairy farmers as the core” in dairy developed countries, the industrialization process of China’s dairy industry is the integrated development driven by dairy enterprises, which are the main market force for the large-scale production of raw milk in the upstream, consumer education and channel network in the downstream. We judge that after a large amount of investment in the early stage, the leading dairy enterprises represented by the company have entered the dividend harvest period, which is mainly reflected in the decline of sales expense rate, while the rise of raw milk price for more than a year plays a catalytic role. Continue to recommend Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) .
Baijiu: influenced by external factors and macroeconomic effects, the adjustment of the first half weeks is relatively large. With the head of liquor enterprises disclosing the operation data and performance bulletin, excellent fundamentals have boosted market confidence. The overall performance of Baijiu sector is relatively bright this week. High-end Baijiu steady progress, external disturbance does not change the long-term prosperity, and Mao five Lu action is frequent, the reform effect is worth looking forward to. When the regional famous liquor was upgraded, it has entered the off-season of sales, the impact of the epidemic disturbance is limited, and the performance certainty is still strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the brands of Su liquor and Hui liquor with strong dynamic sales.
Key industry data
Baijiu: this week Moutai wine wholesale price declined compared with last week, this week’s price is 3115 yuan. In terms of loose bottles, the price of this week was 2765 yuan, slightly higher than that of last week The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) lot price was stable at 965 yuan / bottle, and the Guojiao 1573 lot price was stable at 920 yuan / bottle. Food: on March 11, the price of wheat was 319944 yuan / ton, the price of corn was 280647 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean was 533895 yuan / ton. On March 11, the price of white granulated sugar was 5.82 yuan / kg. On March 11, the prices of piglets, pork and hairy pigs were 14.05 yuan / kg, 18.30 yuan / kg and 15.60 yuan / kg respectively. On March 2, the price of raw and fresh milk was 4.21 yuan / kg. On March 4, the retail price of milk powder remained basically unchanged.
Industry highlights
In 2022, the outlet of sauce wine still attracts much attention, but it has become more rational. Yunjiu headlines investigated the sauce wine market in Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Sichuan and Hebei as follows: the market scale of Henan is about 30 billion yuan, which is a representative market of “heavy sauce”. Among the mainstream brands, Maotai liquor and its series are about 10 billion yuan, Xi liquor series is about 2.5 billion yuan, and Lang Liquor is about 2 billion yuan. The price bands of provincial capital market and prefecture level city market are about 200300 yuan and 150 yuan respectively; With a market scale of about 16 billion yuan, Shandong is the second largest sauce wine market in China except Guizhou, second only to Henan. Among them, the brand share of local sauce wine in Shandong is about 1 billion yuan +; Among the foreign sauce liquor brands, Maotai and series liquor in the first camp are about 10 billion yuan; Sichuan’s market scale is about 9 billion yuan +. Based on the background of its main wine producing areas, sauce wine shows a rapid growth trend in terms of output and sales; The mainstream consumption stalls of Anhui sauce wine market show the characteristics of “12358”, that is, five core price bands of 100 yuan – 200 yuan – 300 yuan – 500 yuan – 800 yuan. The annual sales of Maotai liquor series in Anhui market is about 2 billion%. At present, the ink dyeing penetration of sauce liquor is not enough to change the mainstream consumption habit of Hui Style Luzhou flavor; The market capacity of Hebei is about 7 billion yuan, which belongs to the development market of sauce liquor, including Maotai about 3 billion yuan and series liquor about 1 billion yuan.
Risk tips
The risk of long-term epidemic prevention and control in China; Risks of major food safety incidents; Major agricultural epidemic risk.
