Green building is an important direction of industrial upgrading and breeds new opportunities for rich growth and investment. The construction industry is a pillar industry of the national economy. With the continuous improvement of China’s top-level design of green buildings, green buildings that can save resources, protect the environment, reduce pollution and provide people with healthy, applicable and efficient use space have gradually become the main line of the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry, breeding new opportunities for rich growth and investment. In March 2022, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development’s “14th five year plan” for building energy efficiency and green building development clearly proposed that by 2025, the new urban buildings will fully implement the green building standard (the penetration rate in 2020 is 77%), and the industry will meet an important growth window. From the fact that the score of “resource conservation” in the green building evaluation standard (2019) is twice that of other scoring items, and the preference of the eight tasks of the 2020 green building creation action plan for “resource conservation”, it can be seen that resource conservation is the main focus of promoting green building in China at the present stage.
Four directions for building “resource-saving” green buildings: Based on the evaluation standard for green buildings, China’s resource-saving green buildings include the following four directions: 1) the selection of prefabricated buildings and aluminum formwork support to realize the greening of the construction process; 2) The selection of green building materials such as ceramic fibers, thermal insulation materials and green coatings not only makes the production process more energy-saving and emission reduction, but also makes the building more green attributes such as thermal insulation, water and consumption reduction, health and safety; 3) Select ultra-low energy consumption buildings and near zero energy consumption buildings for building types, and actively use BIPV / bapv and passive buildings; 4) The operation and maintenance mode uses building energy-saving technology to reduce building operation energy consumption, focusing on enterprise microgrid and heating energy-saving technology.
Lvjian trillion market has expanded steadily, showing excellent growth in many fields. We estimate that the scale of green building market in 2025 is expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan, accounting for 5% of CAGR. In terms of key areas: 1) prefabricated buildings and aluminum formwork support are developing rapidly, and the scale is expected to reach 24000 / 57.1 billion yuan and CAGR is 10% / 9% respectively in 2025; 2) The application proportion of green building materials continues to increase, assuming that it will increase to 60% in 2025, corresponding to the market scale of about 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, cagr3%; 3) BIPV / bapv has expanded rapidly with the increase of the installed speed of distributed photovoltaic. It is estimated that the stock transformation exceeds trillion, and the annual increment can exceed 140 billion; 4) The potential market space of electric energy efficiency management can reach 400 billion yuan; 5) The heating energy-saving market shows a rapid growth trend, which is expected to be nearly 30 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 14% of CAGR.
Investment suggestions: 1) key recommendations for prefabricated buildings Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) etc; Aluminum formwork focuses on Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) . 2) It is suggested to pay attention to the green building materials testing leader China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) ; Ceramic fiber, refractory and thermal insulation material faucet Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , as well as calcium silicate board, gypsum board, special glass, waterproof material and other subdivision faucets. 3) BIPV / bapv mainly recommends Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , steel structure leaders actively promoting EPC + BIPV business, pays attention to the leading metal enclosure enterprise Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , cooperates with existing government and enterprise resources, and actively explores Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) , as well as Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) , which has a large technical reserve of photovoltaic curtain wall. 4) Building operation and maintenance energy conservation focuses on Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , and Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) , an expert in heating energy conservation.
Risk tips: the promotion of green building policy is less than the expected risk, the development of prefabricated buildings is less than the expected risk, the risk of insufficient power for the application of green building materials, the development of photovoltaic buildings is less than the expected risk, and the promotion of building energy conservation is less than the expected risk.
